MEGAN: Mixture of Experts for Robust Uncertainty Estimation in Endoscopy Videos

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential in medical AI. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) offers a computationally efficient way to quantify model uncertainty alongside predictions, unlike traditional methods such as Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout and Deep Ensembles (DE). However, all these methods often rely on a single expert's annotations as ground truth for model training, overlooking the inter-rater variability in healthcare. To address this issue, we propose MEGAN, a Multi-Expert Gating Network that aggregates uncertainty estimates and predictions from multiple AI experts via EDL models trained with diverse ground truths and modeling strategies. MEGAN's gating network optimally combines predictions and uncertainties from each EDL model, enhancing overall prediction confidence and calibration. We extensively benchmark MEGAN on endoscopy videos for Ulcerative colitis (UC) disease severity estimation, assessed by visual labeling of Mayo Endoscopic Subscore (MES), where inter-rater variability is prevalent. In large-scale prospective UC clinical trial, MEGAN achieved a 3.5% improvement in F1-score and a 30.5% reduction in Expected Calibration Error (ECE) compared to existing methods. Furthermore, MEGAN facilitated uncertainty-guided sample stratification, reducing the annotation burden and potentially increasing efficiency and consistency in UC trials.

Arges: Spatio-Temporal Transformer for Ulcerative Colitis Severity Assessment in Endoscopy Videos

Accurate assessment of disease severity from endoscopy videos in ulcerative colitis (UC) is crucial for evaluating drug efficacy in clinical trials. Severity is often measured by the Mayo Endoscopic Subscore (MES) and Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS) score. However, expert MES/UCEIS annotation is time-consuming and susceptible to inter-rater variability, factors addressable by automation. Automation attempts with frame-level labels face challenges in fully-supervised solutions due to the prevalence of video-level labels in clinical trials. CNN-based weakly-supervised models (WSL) with end-to-end (e2e) training lack generalization to new disease scores and ignore spatio-temporal information crucial for accurate scoring. To address these limitations, we propose "Arges", a deep learning framework that utilizes a transformer with positional encoding to incorporate spatio-temporal information from frame features to estimate disease severity scores in endoscopy video. Extracted features are derived from a foundation model (ArgesFM), pre-trained on a large diverse dataset from multiple clinical trials (61M frames, 3927 videos). We evaluate four UC disease severity scores, including MES and three UCEIS component scores. Test set evaluation indicates significant improvements, with F1 scores increasing by 4.1% for MES and 18.8%, 6.6%, 3.8% for the three UCEIS component scores compared to state-of-the-art methods. Prospective validation on previously unseen clinical trial data further demonstrates the model's successful generalization.