Arti-"fickle" Intelligence: Using LLMs as a Tool for Inference in the Political and Social Sciences

Generative large language models (LLMs) are incredibly useful, versatile, and promising tools. However, they will be of most use to political and social science researchers when they are used in a way that advances understanding about real human behaviors and concerns. To promote the scientific use of LLMs, we suggest that researchers in the political and social sciences need to remain focused on the scientific goal of inference. To this end, we discuss the challenges and opportunities related to scientific inference with LLMs, using validation of model output as an illustrative case for discussion. We propose a set of guidelines related to establishing the failure and success of LLMs when completing particular tasks, and discuss how we can make inferences from these observations. We conclude with a discussion of how this refocus will improve the accumulation of shared scientific knowledge about these tools and their uses in the social sciences.

AI Chat Assistants can Improve Conversations about Divisive Topics

A rapidly increasing amount of human conversation occurs online. But divisiveness and conflict can fester in text-based interactions on social media platforms, in messaging apps, and on other digital forums. Such toxicity increases polarization and, importantly, corrodes the capacity of diverse societies to develop efficient solutions to complex social problems that impact everyone. Scholars and civil society groups promote interventions that can make interpersonal conversations less divisive or more productive in offline settings, but scaling these efforts to the amount of discourse that occurs online is extremely challenging. We present results of a large-scale experiment that demonstrates how online conversations about divisive topics can be improved with artificial intelligence tools. Specifically, we employ a large language model to make real-time, evidence-based recommendations intended to improve participants' perception of feeling understood in conversations. We find that these interventions improve the reported quality of the conversation, reduce political divisiveness, and improve the tone, without systematically changing the content of the conversation or moving people's policy attitudes. These findings have important implications for future research on social media, political deliberation, and the growing community of scholars interested in the place of artificial intelligence within computational social science.

Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples

We propose and explore the possibility that language models can be studied as effective proxies for specific human sub-populations in social science research. Practical and research applications of artificial intelligence tools have sometimes been limited by problematic biases (such as racism or sexism), which are often treated as uniform properties of the models. We show that the "algorithmic bias" within one such tool -- the GPT-3 language model -- is instead both fine-grained and demographically correlated, meaning that proper conditioning will cause it to accurately emulate response distributions from a wide variety of human subgroups. We term this property "algorithmic fidelity" and explore its extent in GPT-3. We create "silicon samples" by conditioning the model on thousands of socio-demographic backstories from real human participants in multiple large surveys conducted in the United States. We then compare the silicon and human samples to demonstrate that the information contained in GPT-3 goes far beyond surface similarity. It is nuanced, multifaceted, and reflects the complex interplay between ideas, attitudes, and socio-cultural context that characterize human attitudes. We suggest that language models with sufficient algorithmic fidelity thus constitute a novel and powerful tool to advance understanding of humans and society across a variety of disciplines.