Supporting renewable energy planning and operation with data-driven high-resolution ensemble weather forecast

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these requirements, introducing challenges of scale inconsistency, process representation error, computation cost, and entanglement of distinct uncertainty sources from chaoticity, model bias, and large-scale forcing. We address these challenges by learning the climatological distribution of a target wind farm using its high-resolution numerical weather simulations. An optimal combination of this learned high-resolution climatological prior with coarse-grid large scale forecasts yields highly accurate, fine-grained, full-variable, large ensemble of weather pattern forecasts. Using observed meteorological records and wind turbine power outputs as references, the proposed methodology verifies advantageously compared to existing numerical/statistical forecasting-downscaling pipelines, regarding either deterministic/probabilistic skills or economic gains. Moreover, a 100-member, 10-day forecast with spatial resolution of 1 km and output frequency of 15 min takes < 1 hour on a moderate-end GPU, as contrast to $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ CPU hours for conventional numerical simulation. By drastically reducing computational costs while maintaining accuracy, our method paves the way for more efficient and reliable renewable energy planning and operation.

Fraud Detection with Binding Global and Local Relational Interaction

Graph Neural Network has been proved to be effective for fraud detection for its capability to encode node interaction and aggregate features in a holistic view. Recently, Transformer network with great sequence encoding ability, has also outperformed other GNN-based methods in literatures. However, both GNN-based and Transformer-based networks only encode one perspective of the whole graph, while GNN encodes global features and Transformer network encodes local ones. Furthermore, previous works ignored encoding global interaction features of the heterogeneous graph with separate networks, thus leading to suboptimal performance. In this work, we present a novel framework called Relation-Aware GNN with transFormer (RAGFormer) which simultaneously embeds local and global features into a target node. The simple yet effective network applies a modified GAGA module where each transformer layer is followed by a cross-relation aggregation layer, to encode local embeddings and node interactions across different relations. Apart from the Transformer-based network, we further introduce a Relation-Aware GNN module to learn global embeddings, which is later merged into the local embeddings by an attention fusion module and a skip connection. Extensive experiments on two popular public datasets and an industrial dataset demonstrate that RAGFormer achieves the state-of-the-art performance. Substantial analysis experiments validate the effectiveness of each submodule of RAGFormer and its high efficiency in utilizing small-scale data and low hyper-parameter sensitivity.