Are EEG Sequences Time Series? EEG Classification with Time Series Models and Joint Subject Training

As with most other data domains, EEG data analysis relies on rich domain-specific preprocessing. Beyond such preprocessing, machine learners would hope to deal with such data as with any other time series data. For EEG classification many models have been developed with layer types and architectures we typically do not see in time series classification. Furthermore, typically separate models for each individual subject are learned, not one model for all of them. In this paper, we systematically study the differences between EEG classification models and generic time series classification models. We describe three different model setups to deal with EEG data from different subjects, subject-specific models (most EEG literature), subject-agnostic models and subject-conditional models. In experiments on three datasets, we demonstrate that off-the-shelf time series classification models trained per subject perform close to EEG classification models, but that do not quite reach the performance of domain-specific modeling. Additionally, we combine time-series models with subject embeddings to train one joint subject-conditional classifier on all subjects. The resulting models are competitive with dedicated EEG models in 2 out of 3 datasets, even outperforming all EEG methods on one of them.

Hyperparameter Tuning MLPs for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting attempts to predict future events by analyzing past trends and patterns. Although well researched, certain critical aspects pertaining to the use of deep learning in time series forecasting remain ambiguous. Our research primarily focuses on examining the impact of specific hyperparameters related to time series, such as context length and validation strategy, on the performance of the state-of-the-art MLP model in time series forecasting. We have conducted a comprehensive series of experiments involving 4800 configurations per dataset across 20 time series forecasting datasets, and our findings demonstrate the importance of tuning these parameters. Furthermore, in this work, we introduce the largest metadataset for timeseries forecasting to date, named TSBench, comprising 97200 evaluations, which is a twentyfold increase compared to previous works in the field. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the created metadataset on multi-fidelity hyperparameter optimization tasks.

ProbSAINT: Probabilistic Tabular Regression for Used Car Pricing

Used car pricing is a critical aspect of the automotive industry, influenced by many economic factors and market dynamics. With the recent surge in online marketplaces and increased demand for used cars, accurate pricing would benefit both buyers and sellers by ensuring fair transactions. However, the transition towards automated pricing algorithms using machine learning necessitates the comprehension of model uncertainties, specifically the ability to flag predictions that the model is unsure about. Although recent literature proposes the use of boosting algorithms or nearest neighbor-based approaches for swift and precise price predictions, encapsulating model uncertainties with such algorithms presents a complex challenge. We introduce ProbSAINT, a model that offers a principled approach for uncertainty quantification of its price predictions, along with accurate point predictions that are comparable to state-of-the-art boosting techniques. Furthermore, acknowledging that the business prefers pricing used cars based on the number of days the vehicle was listed for sale, we show how ProbSAINT can be used as a dynamic forecasting model for predicting price probabilities for different expected offer duration. Our experiments further indicate that ProbSAINT is especially accurate on instances where it is highly certain. This proves the applicability of its probabilistic predictions in real-world scenarios where trustworthiness is crucial.

Moco: A Learnable Meta Optimizer for Combinatorial Optimization

Relevant combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) are often NP-hard. While they have been tackled mainly via handcrafted heuristics in the past, advances in neural networks have motivated the development of general methods to learn heuristics from data. Many approaches utilize a neural network to directly construct a solution, but are limited in further improving based on already constructed solutions at inference time. Our approach, Moco, learns a graph neural network that updates the solution construction procedure based on features extracted from the current search state. This meta training procedure targets the overall best solution found during the search procedure given information such as the search budget. This allows Moco to adapt to varying circumstances such as different computational budgets. Moco is a fully learnable meta optimizer that does not utilize any problem specific local search or decomposition. We test Moco on the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) and Maximum Independent Set (MIS) and show that it outperforms other approaches on MIS and is overall competitive on the TSP, especially outperforming related approaches, partially even if they use additional local search.

Probabilistic Forecasting of Irregular Time Series via Conditional Flows

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only marginal distributions of observations in single channels and at single timepoints, assuming a fixed-shape parametric distribution. In this work, we propose a novel model, ProFITi, for probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled time series with missing values using conditional normalizing flows. The model learns joint distributions over the future values of the time series conditioned on past observations and queried channels and times, without assuming any fixed shape of the underlying distribution. As model components, we introduce a novel invertible triangular attention layer and an invertible non-linear activation function on and onto the whole real line. We conduct extensive experiments on four datasets and demonstrate that the proposed model provides $4$ times higher likelihood over the previously best model.

Context-Aware Sequential Model for Multi-Behaviour Recommendation

Sequential recommendation models are crucial for next-item recommendations in online platforms, capturing complex patterns in user interactions. However, many focus on a single behavior, overlooking valuable implicit interactions like clicks and favorites. Existing multi-behavioral models often fail to simultaneously capture sequential patterns. We propose CASM, a Context-Aware Sequential Model, leveraging sequential models to seamlessly handle multiple behaviors. CASM employs context-aware multi-head self-attention for heterogeneous historical interactions and a weighted binary cross-entropy loss for precise control over behavior contributions. Experimental results on four datasets demonstrate CASM's superiority over state-of-the-art approaches.

Towards Comparable Active Learning

Active Learning has received significant attention in the field of machine learning for its potential in selecting the most informative samples for labeling, thereby reducing data annotation costs. However, we show that the reported lifts in recent literature generalize poorly to other domains leading to an inconclusive landscape in Active Learning research. Furthermore, we highlight overlooked problems for reproducing AL experiments that can lead to unfair comparisons and increased variance in the results. This paper addresses these issues by providing an Active Learning framework for a fair comparison of algorithms across different tasks and domains, as well as a fast and performant oracle algorithm for evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, we propose the first AL benchmark that tests algorithms in 3 major domains: Tabular, Image, and Text. We report empirical results for 6 widely used algorithms on 7 real-world and 2 synthetic datasets and aggregate them into a domain-specific ranking of AL algorithms.

Routing Arena: A Benchmark Suite for Neural Routing Solvers

Neural Combinatorial Optimization has been researched actively in the last eight years. Even though many of the proposed Machine Learning based approaches are compared on the same datasets, the evaluation protocol exhibits essential flaws and the selection of baselines often neglects State-of-the-Art Operations Research approaches. To improve on both of these shortcomings, we propose the Routing Arena, a benchmark suite for Routing Problems that provides a seamless integration of consistent evaluation and the provision of baselines and benchmarks prevalent in the Machine Learning- and Operations Research field. The proposed evaluation protocol considers the two most important evaluation cases for different applications: First, the solution quality for an a priori fixed time budget and secondly the anytime performance of the respective methods. By setting the solution trajectory in perspective to a Best Known Solution and a Base Solver's solutions trajectory, we furthermore propose the Weighted Relative Average Performance (WRAP), a novel evaluation metric that quantifies the often claimed runtime efficiency of Neural Routing Solvers. A comprehensive first experimental evaluation demonstrates that the most recent Operations Research solvers generate state-of-the-art results in terms of solution quality and runtime efficiency when it comes to the vehicle routing problem. Nevertheless, some findings highlight the advantages of neural approaches and motivate a shift in how neural solvers should be conceptualized.

Too Big, so Fail? -- Enabling Neural Construction Methods to Solve Large-Scale Routing Problems

In recent years new deep learning approaches to solve combinatorial optimization problems, in particular NP-hard Vehicle Routing Problems (VRP), have been proposed. The most impactful of these methods are sequential neural construction approaches which are usually trained via reinforcement learning. Due to the high training costs of these models, they usually are trained on limited instance sizes (e.g. serving 100 customers) and later applied to vastly larger instance size (e.g. 2000 customers). By means of a systematic scale-up study we show that even state-of-the-art neural construction methods are outperformed by simple heuristics, failing to generalize to larger problem instances. We propose to use the ruin recreate principle that alternates between completely destroying a localized part of the solution and then recreating an improved variant. In this way, neural construction methods like POMO are never applied to the global problem but just in the reconstruction step, which only involves partial problems much closer in size to their original training instances. In thorough experiments on four datasets of varying distributions and modalities we show that our neural ruin recreate approach outperforms alternative forms of improving construction methods such as sampling and beam search and in several experiments also advanced local search approaches.