Using Sequences of Life-events to Predict Human Lives

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Masked Autoencoders with Multi-Window Attention Are Better Audio Learners

Several recent works have adapted Masked Autoencoders (MAEs) for learning general-purpose audio representations. However, they do not address two key aspects of modelling multi-domain audio data: (i) real-world audio tasks consist of a combination of local+global contexts, and (ii) real-world audio signals are complex compositions of several acoustic elements with different time-frequency characteristics. To address these concerns, this work proposes a Multi-Window Masked Autoencoder (MW-MAE) fitted with a novel Multi-Window Multi-Head Attention module that can capture information at multiple local and global contexts in every decoder transformer block through attention heads of several distinct local and global windows. Empirical results on ten downstream audio tasks show that MW-MAEs consistently outperform standard MAEs in overall performance and learn better general-purpose audio representations, as well as demonstrate considerably better scaling characteristics. Exploratory analyses of the learned representations reveals that MW-MAE encoders learn attention heads with more distinct entropies compared to those learned by MAEs, while attention heads across the different transformer blocks in MW-MAE decoders learn correlated feature representations, enabling each block to independently capture local and global information, leading to a decoupled feature hierarchy. Code for feature extraction and downstream experiments along with pre-trained weights can be found at https://github.com/10997NeurIPS23/10997_mwmae.

On convex conceptual regions in deep network representations

The current study of human-machine alignment aims at understanding the geometry of latent spaces and the correspondence to human representations. G\"ardenfors' conceptual spaces is a prominent framework for understanding human representations. Convexity of object regions in conceptual spaces is argued to promote generalizability, few-shot learning, and intersubject alignment. Based on these insights, we investigate the notion of convexity of concept regions in machine-learned latent spaces. We develop a set of tools for measuring convexity in sampled data and evaluate emergent convexity in layered representations of state-of-the-art deep networks. We show that convexity is robust to basic re-parametrization, hence, meaningful as a quality of machine-learned latent spaces. We find that approximate convexity is pervasive in neural representations in multiple application domains, including models of images, audio, human activity, text, and brain data. We measure convexity separately for labels (i.e., targets for fine-tuning) and other concepts. Generally, we observe that fine-tuning increases the convexity of label regions, while for more general concepts, it depends on the alignment of the concept with the fine-tuning objective. We find evidence that pre-training convexity of class label regions predicts subsequent fine-tuning performance.

Robustness of Visual Explanations to Common Data Augmentation

As the use of deep neural networks continues to grow, understanding their behaviour has become more crucial than ever. Post-hoc explainability methods are a potential solution, but their reliability is being called into question. Our research investigates the response of post-hoc visual explanations to naturally occurring transformations, often referred to as augmentations. We anticipate explanations to be invariant under certain transformations, such as changes to the colour map while responding in an equivariant manner to transformations like translation, object scaling, and rotation. We have found remarkable differences in robustness depending on the type of transformation, with some explainability methods (such as LRP composites and Guided Backprop) being more stable than others. We also explore the role of training with data augmentation. We provide evidence that explanations are typically less robust to augmentation than classification performance, regardless of whether data augmentation is used in training or not.

On the role of Model Uncertainties in Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for black-box optimization, which relies on uncertainty as part of its decision-making process when deciding which experiment to perform next. However, not much work has addressed the effect of uncertainty on the performance of the BO algorithm and to what extent calibrated uncertainties improve the ability to find the global optimum. In this work, we provide an extensive study of the relationship between the BO performance (regret) and uncertainty calibration for popular surrogate models and compare them across both synthetic and real-world experiments. Our results confirm that Gaussian Processes are strong surrogate models and that they tend to outperform other popular models. Our results further show a positive association between calibration error and regret, but interestingly, this association disappears when we control for the type of model in the analysis. We also studied the effect of re-calibration and demonstrate that it generally does not lead to improved regret. Finally, we provide theoretical justification for why uncertainty calibration might be difficult to combine with BO due to the small sample sizes commonly used.

Topic Model Robustness to Automatic Speech Recognition Errors in Podcast Transcripts

For a multilingual podcast streaming service, it is critical to be able to deliver relevant content to all users independent of language. Podcast content relevance is conventionally determined using various metadata sources. However, with the increasing quality of speech recognition in many languages, utilizing automatic transcriptions to provide better content recommendations becomes possible. In this work, we explore the robustness of a Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model when applied to transcripts created by an automatic speech recognition engine. Specifically, we explore how increasing transcription noise influences topics obtained from transcriptions in Danish; a low resource language. First, we observe a baseline of cosine similarity scores between topic embeddings from automatic transcriptions and the descriptions of the podcasts written by the podcast creators. We then observe how the cosine similarities decrease as transcription noise increases and conclude that even when automatic speech recognition transcripts are erroneous, it is still possible to obtain high-quality topic embeddings from the transcriptions.

Generalization by design: Shortcuts to Generalization in Deep Learning

We take a geometrical viewpoint and present a unifying view on supervised deep learning with the Bregman divergence loss function - this entails frequent classification and prediction tasks. Motivated by simulations we suggest that there is principally no implicit bias of vanilla stochastic gradient descent training of deep models towards "simpler" functions. Instead, we show that good generalization may be instigated by bounded spectral products over layers leading to a novel geometric regularizer. It is revealed that in deep enough models such a regularizer enables both, extreme accuracy and generalization, to be reached. We associate popular regularization techniques like weight decay, drop out, batch normalization, and early stopping with this perspective. Backed up by theory we further demonstrate that "generalization by design" is practically possible and that good generalization may be encoded into the structure of the network. We design two such easy-to-use structural regularizers that insert an additional \textit{generalization layer} into a model architecture, one with a skip connection and another one with drop-out. We verify our theoretical results in experiments on various feedforward and convolutional architectures, including ResNets, and datasets (MNIST, CIFAR10, synthetic data). We believe this work opens up new avenues of research towards better generalizing architectures.

A simple defense against adversarial attacks on heatmap explanations

With machine learning models being used for more sensitive applications, we rely on interpretability methods to prove that no discriminating attributes were used for classification. A potential concern is the so-called "fair-washing" - manipulating a model such that the features used in reality are hidden and more innocuous features are shown to be important instead. In our work we present an effective defence against such adversarial attacks on neural networks. By a simple aggregation of multiple explanation methods, the network becomes robust against manipulation. This holds even when the attacker has exact knowledge of the model weights and the explanation methods used.

Probabilistic Decoupling of Labels in Classification

In this paper we develop a principled, probabilistic, unified approach to non-standard classification tasks, such as semi-supervised, positive-unlabelled, multi-positive-unlabelled and noisy-label learning. We train a classifier on the given labels to predict the label-distribution. We then infer the underlying class-distributions by variationally optimizing a model of label-class transitions.

On the Limits to Multi-Modal Popularity Prediction on Instagram -- A New Robust, Efficient and Explainable Baseline

The predictability of social media popularity is a topic of much scientific interest and significant practical importance. We present a new strong baseline for popularity prediction on Instagram, which is both robust and efficient to compute. The approach expands previous work by a comprehensive ablation study of the predictive power of multiple representations of the visual modality and by detailed use of explainability tools. We use transfer learning to extract visual semantics as concepts, scenes, and objects, which allows us to interpret and explain the trained model and predictions. The study is based in one million posts extracted from Instagram. We approach the problem of popularity prediction as a ranking problem, where we predict the log-normalised number of likes. Through our ablation study design, we can suggest models that outperform a previous state-of-the-art black-box method for multi-modal popularity prediction on Instagram.