Evaluation, Tuning and Interpretation of Neural Networks for Meteorological Applications

Neural networks have opened up many new opportunities to utilize remotely sensed images in meteorology. Common applications include image classification, e.g., to determine whether an image contains a tropical cyclone, and image translation, e.g., to emulate radar imagery for satellites that only have passive channels. However, there are yet many open questions regarding the use of neural networks in meteorology, such as best practices for evaluation, tuning and interpretation. This article highlights several strategies and practical considerations for neural network development that have not yet received much attention in the meteorological community, such as the concept of effective receptive fields, underutilized meteorological performance measures, and methods for NN interpretation, such as synthetic experiments and layer-wise relevance propagation. We also consider the process of neural network interpretation as a whole, recognizing it as an iterative scientist-driven discovery process, and breaking it down into individual steps that researchers can take. Finally, while most work on neural network interpretation in meteorology has so far focused on networks for image classification tasks, we expand the focus to also include networks for image translation.

Development and Interpretation of a Neural Network-Based Synthetic Radar Reflectivity Estimator Using GOES-R Satellite Observations

The objective of this research is to develop techniques for assimilating GOES-R Series observations in precipitating scenes for the purpose of improving short-term convective-scale forecasts of high impact weather hazards. Whereas one approach is radiance assimilation, the information content of GOES-R radiances from its Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) saturates in precipitating scenes, and radiance assimilation does not make use of lightning observations from the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM). Here, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is developed to transform GOES-R radiances and lightning into synthetic radar reflectivity fields to make use of existing radar assimilation techniques. We find that the ability of CNNs to utilize spatial context is essential for this application and offers breakthrough improvement in skill compared to traditional pixel-by-pixel based approaches. To understand the improved performance, we use a novel analysis methodology that combines several techniques, each providing different insights into the network's reasoning. Channel withholding experiments and spatial information withholding experiments are used to show that the CNN achieves skill at high reflectivity values from the information content in radiance gradients and the presence of lightning. The attribution method, layer-wise relevance propagation, demonstrates that the CNN uses radiance and lightning information synergistically, where lightning helps the CNN focus on which neighboring locations are most important. Synthetic inputs are used to quantify the sensitivity to radiance gradients, showing that sharper gradients produce a stronger response in predicted reflectivity. Finally, geostationary lightning observations are found to be uniquely valuable for their ability to pinpoint locations of strong radar echoes.