Speculative Refinement: A Hybrid Autoregressive Diffusion Decoding Strategy and Its Behavior Across Benchmarks

How should we evaluate generation systems that combine autoregressive (AR) and diffusion decoding? We study this question through Speculative Refinement (SpecRef), a training-free hybrid method that warm-starts a masked diffusion language model from an AR draft using entropy-guided selective masking. Evaluating SpecRef across six benchmarks (HumanEval, MBPP, GSM8K, BBH, ARC-Challenge, HellaSwag) with three distinct evaluation protocols (execution-based pass@1, exact-match, log-likelihood scoring), we surface several findings relevant beyond our specific system: (1) code benchmarks conflate structural discovery with logical correctness: providing a syntactic scaffold lifts accuracy from near zero to over 20% without changing the model, indicating that much of the baseline failure is structural; (2) a refinement tension phenomenon where multi-stage correction degrades already-correct tokens, exposing benchmark saturation ceilings invisible to single-model evaluation; (3) log-likelihood and generative evaluation produce different model rankings for the same model pair, suggesting they measure different capabilities; (4) standard Python post-processing silently breaks code evaluation for non-AR generators. These observations apply to any multi-stage or non-autoregressive generation pipeline and point toward more diagnostic evaluation practices.