Towards Dynamic Causal Discovery with Rare Events: A Nonparametric Conditional Independence Test

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal discovery are often unable to uncover causal links, between random variables in a dynamic setting, that manifest only when the variables first experience low-probability realizations. To address this issue, we introduce a novel statistical independence test on data collected from time-invariant dynamical systems in which rare but consequential events occur. In particular, we exploit the time-invariance of the underlying data to construct a superimposed dataset of the system state before rare events happen at different timesteps. We then design a conditional independence test on the reorganized data. We provide non-asymptotic sample complexity bounds for the consistency of our method, and validate its performance across various simulated and real-world datasets, including incident data collected from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Code containing the datasets and experiments is publicly available.

Social Choice with Changing Preferences: Representation Theorems and Long-Run Policies

We study group decision making with changing preferences as a Markov Decision Process. We are motivated by the increasing prevalence of automated decision-making systems when making choices for groups of people over time. Our main contribution is to show how classic representation theorems from social choice theory can be adapted to characterize optimal policies in this dynamic setting. We provide an axiomatic characterization of MDP reward functions that agree with the Utilitarianism social welfare functionals of social choice theory. We also provide discussion of cases when the implementation of social choice-theoretic axioms may fail to lead to long-run optimal outcomes.