Multi-Year Geospatial Reasoning using Interannually-Consistent Historical Predictions as a Free Input Modality

Machine learning, and deep networks in particular, are increasingly used to derive higher-level Earth observation (EO) products such as annual land-cover and crop-type maps. Many are generated operationally: each year a new acquisition is processed, typically with the same model, extending a multi-year archive. In the process these systems accumulate two kinds of useful signal that are almost never fed back into the model: the system's own archive of past predictions, and ancillary layers produced by other partners in a processing consortium. Both are normally used outside the network, as rule-based post-processing or a fixed input mask. Using the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service High Resolution Layer (HRL) Croplands crop-type product as a testbed, we show that bringing both signals inside the model turns a single-year, single-task pixel classifier into one that reasons across years. We introduce a Crop Type (CTY) embedding encoder that represents each past prediction as a confidence-scaled, time-ordered categorical token and attends over the year axis, and we study how the externally provided Base Vegetation Layer (BVL) mask should be represented in the model's inputs and outputs. To compare designs fairly when they relabel non-crop pixels, we evaluate on the 18 crop classes only and report precision and recall separately. On a pan-European dataset of about 5.4M labelled pixels, adding the prediction history raises crop-only F1 by 1.6 percentage points (pp) and, more importantly, corrects a recall-skewed error profile, with the largest gains on perennial and tree crops (olives +4.6, fruits +3.7, nuts +3.2 pp). Representing the BVL mask consistently in both the history and the target year adds about 2.5 pp on the crop classes. The approach is a low-cost recipe for any recurring geospatial or foundation model that emits class maps.

Embeddings based Anomaly Detection for Cleaning Global Crop Type Reference Datasets

High quality reference data remain a critical bottleneck for crop-type mapping at any spatial and temporal scale. Operational systems such as WorldCereal aggregate labels from heterogeneous sources such as parcel registers, national databases, field surveys, and map-derived products, each with their own biases, coverage gaps and unknown label noise. Simple global rules are inadequate, since crop phenology and observation conditions vary strongly across regions and seasons. In this study, we focus on a single, operationally relevant question: whether embeddings produced through geospatial foundation models are a viable basis for cleaning the reference data. We propose a practical, locality-aware, embedding-based anomaly (EBA) detection framework that operates on the embeddings of a pretrained Earth-observation encoder. We score each labelled sample against other samples of the same crop in the same area using a pretrained embedding, flag the ones that stand out, and test whether removing or down-weighting them before training yields a better model. We establish that the flagged points are genuinely mislabelled or misplaced in two independent ways: against synthetic ground truth, the detector concentrates injected label errors 2.5-5x above chance in its flagged set (detection AUROC up to 0.84); and on real data, a model-independent test shows that removing or confidence-weighting the flagged held-out points raises measured accuracy in trained models, for both crop type and land cover. Acting on the flags then improves the WorldCereal crop-type model across five macro-regions, evaluated on a fixed held-out split under three views. We find conservative cleaning helps while over-cleaning hurts. The EBA detector approach is designed to be reproducible and extensible, and can serve as a template for cleaning large, noisy Earth observation reference datasets beyond crop mapping.