Algorithmic Compliance and Regulatory Loss in Digital Assets

We study the deployment performance of machine learning based enforcement systems used in cryptocurrency anti money laundering (AML). Using forward looking and rolling evaluations on Bitcoin transaction data, we show that strong static classification metrics substantially overstate real world regulatory effectiveness. Temporal nonstationarity induces pronounced instability in cost sensitive enforcement thresholds, generating large and persistent excess regulatory losses relative to dynamically optimal benchmarks. The core failure arises from miscalibration of decision rules rather than from declining predictive accuracy per se. These findings underscore the fragility of fixed AML enforcement policies in evolving digital asset markets and motivate loss-based evaluation frameworks for regulatory oversight.

Molt Dynamics: Emergent Social Phenomena in Autonomous AI Agent Populations

MoltBook is a large-scale multi-agent coordination environment where over 770,000 autonomous LLM agents interact without human participation, offering the first opportunity we are aware of to observe emergent multi-agent coordination dynamics at this population scale. We introduce \textit{Molt Dynamics}: the emergent agent coordination behaviors, inter-agent communication dynamics, and role specialization patterns arising when autonomous agents operate as decentralized decision-makers in an unconstrained multi-agent environment. Through longitudinal observation of 90,704 active agents over three weeks, we characterize three aspects. First, spontaneous role specialization: network-based clustering reveals six structural roles (silhouette 0.91), though the result primarily reflects core-periphery organization -- 93.5\% of agents occupy a homogeneous peripheral cluster, with meaningful differentiation confined to the active minority. Second, decentralized information dissemination: cascade analysis of 10,323 inter-agent propagation events reveals power-law distributed cascade sizes ($α= 2.57 \pm 0.02$) and saturating adoption dynamics where adoption probability shows diminishing returns with repeated exposures (Cox hazard ratio 0.53, concordance 0.78). Third, distributed cooperative task resolution: 164 multi-agent collaborative events show detectable coordination patterns, but success rates are low (6.7\%, $p = 0.057$) and cooperative outcomes are significantly worse than a matched single-agent baseline (Cohen's $d = -0.88$), indicating emergent cooperative behavior is nascent. These findings establish an empirical baseline for coordination dynamics in decentralized autonomous agent systems, with implications for multi-agent system design, agent communication protocol engineering, and AI safety.

Geodesic Semantic Search: Learning Local Riemannian Metrics for Citation Graph Retrieval

We present Geodesic Semantic Search (GSS), a retrieval system that learns node-specific Riemannian metrics on citation graphs to enable geometry-aware semantic search. Unlike standard embedding-based retrieval that relies on fixed Euclidean distances, \gss{} learns a low-rank metric tensor $\mL_i \in \R^{d \times r}$ at each node, inducing a local positive semi-definite metric $\mG_i = \mL_i \mL_i^\top + \eps \mI$. This parameterization guarantees valid metrics while keeping the model tractable. Retrieval proceeds via multi-source Dijkstra on the learned geodesic distances, followed by Maximal Marginal Relevance reranking and path coherence filtering. On citation prediction benchmarks with 169K papers, \gss{} achieves 23\% relative improvement in Recall@20 over SPECTER+FAISS baselines while providing interpretable citation paths. Our hierarchical coarse-to-fine search with k-means pooling reduces computational cost by 4$\times$ compared to flat geodesic search while maintaining 97\% retrieval quality. We provide theoretical analysis of when geodesic distances outperform direct similarity, characterize the approximation quality of low-rank metrics, and validate predictions empirically. Code and trained models are available at https://github.com/YCRG-Labs/geodesic-search.

AI Assisted Economics Measurement From Survey: Evidence from Public Employee Pension Choice

We develop an iterative framework for economic measurement that leverages large language models to extract measurement structure directly from survey instruments. The approach maps survey items to a sparse distribution over latent constructs through what we term a soft mapping, aggregates harmonized responses into respondent level sub dimension scores, and disciplines the resulting taxonomy through out of sample incremental validity tests and discriminant validity diagnostics. The framework explicitly integrates iteration into the measurement construction process. Overlap and redundancy diagnostics trigger targeted taxonomy refinement and constrained remapping, ensuring that added measurement flexibility is retained only when it delivers stable out of sample performance gains. Applied to a large scale public employee retirement plan survey, the framework identifies which semantic components contain behavioral signal and clarifies the economic mechanisms, such as beliefs versus constraints, that matter for retirement choices. The methodology provides a portable measurement audit of survey instruments that can guide both empirical analysis and survey design.

Calibrating Behavioral Parameters with Large Language Models

Behavioral parameters such as loss aversion, herding, and extrapolation are central to asset pricing models but remain difficult to measure reliably. We develop a framework that treats large language models (LLMs) as calibrated measurement instruments for behavioral parameters. Using four models and 24{,}000 agent--scenario pairs, we document systematic rationality bias in baseline LLM behavior, including attenuated loss aversion, weak herding, and near-zero disposition effects relative to human benchmarks. Profile-based calibration induces large, stable, and theoretically coherent shifts in several parameters, with calibrated loss aversion, herding, extrapolation, and anchoring reaching or exceeding benchmark magnitudes. To assess external validity, we embed calibrated parameters in an agent-based asset pricing model, where calibrated extrapolation generates short-horizon momentum and long-horizon reversal patterns consistent with empirical evidence. Our results establish measurement ranges, calibration functions, and explicit boundaries for eight canonical behavioral biases.

Log anomaly detection via Meta Learning and Prototypical Networks for Cross domain generalization

Log anomaly detection is essential for system reliability, but it is extremely challenging to do considering it involves class imbalance. Additionally, the models trained in one domain are not applicable to other domains, necessitating the need for cross-domain adaptation (such as HDFS and Linux). Traditional detection models often fail to generalize due to significant data drift and the inherent absence of labeled anomalies in new target domains. To handle the above challenges, we proposed a new end-to-end framework based on a meta-learning approach. Our methodology first gets the data ready by combining a Drain3 log parsing mechanism with a dynamic drift-based labeling technique that uses semantic and fuzzy matching to move existing anomaly knowledge from one source to another. BERT-based semantic embeddings are obtained, and the feature selection is invoked to reduce the dimensionality. Later, Model Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) and Prototypical Networks models are trained to adapt quickly and effectively. The SMOTE oversampling method is employed to handle imbalances in the data. All the results are obtained by employing the leave-one-out source method, and the corresponding mean F1 scores are reported. Our empirical findings validate that the proposed meta-learning-driven approach yielded the highest mean F1 score and proved to be effective for cross-domain settings.