Tab-TRM: Tiny Recursive Model for Insurance Pricing on Tabular Data

We introduce Tab-TRM (Tabular-Tiny Recursive Model), a network architecture that adapts the recursive latent reasoning paradigm of Tiny Recursive Models (TRMs) to insurance modeling. Drawing inspiration from both the Hierarchical Reasoning Model (HRM) and its simplified successor TRM, the Tab-TRM model makes predictions by reasoning over the input features. It maintains two learnable latent tokens - an answer token and a reasoning state - that are iteratively refined by a compact, parameter-efficient recursive network. The recursive processing layer repeatedly updates the reasoning state given the full token sequence and then refines the answer token, in close analogy with iterative insurance pricing schemes. Conceptually, Tab-TRM bridges classical actuarial workflows - iterative generalized linear model fitting and minimum-bias calibration - on the one hand, and modern machine learning, in terms of Gradient Boosting Machines, on the other.

In-Context Learning Enhanced Credibility Transformer

The starting point of our network architecture is the Credibility Transformer which extends the classical Transformer architecture by a credibility mechanism to improve model learning and predictive performance. This Credibility Transformer learns credibilitized CLS tokens that serve as learned representations of the original input features. In this paper we present a new paradigm that augments this architecture by an in-context learning mechanism, i.e., we increase the information set by a context batch consisting of similar instances. This allows the model to enhance the CLS token representations of the instances by additional in-context information and fine-tuning. We empirically verify that this in-context learning enhances predictive accuracy by adapting to similar risk patterns. Moreover, this in-context learning also allows the model to generalize to new instances which, e.g., have feature levels in the categorical covariates that have not been present when the model was trained -- for a relevant example, think of a new vehicle model which has just been developed by a car manufacturer.