Optimizing Stock Option Forecasting with the Assembly of Machine Learning Models and Improved Trading Strategies

This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the follow-up project of the research "Application of Convolutional Neural Networks with Quasi-Reversibility Method Results for Option Forecasting". First, the project included an application of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to provide a novel way of predicting stock option trends. Additionally, it examined the dependence of the ML models by evaluating the experimental method of combining multiple ML models to improve prediction results and decision-making. Lastly, two improved trading strategies and simulated investing results were presented. The Binomial Asset Pricing Model with discrete time stochastic process analysis and portfolio hedging was applied and suggested an optimized investment expectation. These results can be utilized in real-life trading strategies to optimize stock option investment results based on historical data.

Application of Convolutional Neural Networks with Quasi-Reversibility Method Results for Option Forecasting

This paper presents a novel way to apply mathematical finance and machine learning (ML) to forecast stock options prices. Following results from the paper Quasi-Reversibility Method and Neural Network Machine Learning to Solution of Black-Scholes Equations (appeared on the AMS Contemporary Mathematics journal), we create and evaluate new empirical mathematical models for the Black-Scholes equation to analyze data for 92,846 companies. We solve the Black-Scholes (BS) equation forwards in time as an ill-posed inverse problem, using the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM), to predict option price for the future one day. For each company, we have 13 elements including stock and option daily prices, volatility, minimizer, etc. Because the market is so complicated that there exists no perfect model, we apply ML to train algorithms to make the best prediction. The current stage of research combines QRM with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), which learn information across a large number of data points simultaneously. We implement CNN to generate new results by validating and testing on sample market data. We test different ways of applying CNN and compare our CNN models with previous models to see if achieving a higher profit rate is possible.