CausationEntropy: Pythonic Optimal Causation Entropy

Optimal Causation Entropy (oCSE) is a robust causal network modeling technique that reveals causal networks from dynamical systems and coupled oscillators, distinguishing direct from indirect paths. CausationEntropy is a Python package that implements oCSE and several of its significant optimizations and methodological extensions. In this paper, we introduce the version 1.1 release of CausationEntropy, which includes new synthetic data generators, plotting tools, and several advanced information-theoretical causal network discovery algorithms with criteria for estimating Gaussian, k-nearest neighbors (kNN), geometric k-nearest neighbors (geometric-kNN), kernel density (KDE) and Poisson entropic estimators. The package is easy to install from the PyPi software repository, is thoroughly documented, supplemented with extensive code examples, and is modularly structured to support future additions. The entire codebase is released under the MIT license and is available on GitHub and through PyPi Repository. We expect this package to serve as a benchmark tool for causal discovery in complex dynamical systems.

Unlocking Unlabeled Data: Ensemble Learning with the Hui- Walter Paradigm for Performance Estimation in Online and Static Settings

In the realm of machine learning and statistical modeling, practitioners often work under the assumption of accessible, static, labeled data for evaluation and training. However, this assumption often deviates from reality where data may be private, encrypted, difficult- to-measure, or unlabeled. In this paper, we bridge this gap by adapting the Hui-Walter paradigm, a method traditionally applied in epidemiology and medicine, to the field of machine learning. This approach enables us to estimate key performance metrics such as false positive rate, false negative rate, and priors in scenarios where no ground truth is available. We further extend this paradigm for handling online data, opening up new possibilities for dynamic data environments. Our methodology involves partitioning data into latent classes to simulate multiple data populations (if natural populations are unavailable) and independently training models to replicate multiple tests. By cross-tabulating binary outcomes across ensemble categorizers and multiple populations, we are able to estimate unknown parameters through Gibbs sampling, eliminating the need for ground-truth or labeled data. This paper showcases the potential of our methodology to transform machine learning practices by allowing for accurate model assessment under dynamic and uncertain data conditions.