The carbon cost of materials discovery: Can machine learning really accelerate the discovery of new photovoltaics?

Computational screening has become a powerful complement to experimental efforts in the discovery of high-performance photovoltaic (PV) materials. Most workflows rely on density functional theory (DFT) to estimate electronic and optical properties relevant to solar energy conversion. Although more efficient than laboratory-based methods, DFT calculations still entail substantial computational and environmental costs. Machine learning (ML) models have recently gained attention as surrogates for DFT, offering drastic reductions in resource use with competitive predictive performance. In this study, we reproduce a canonical DFT-based workflow to estimate the maximum efficiency limit and progressively replace its components with ML surrogates. By quantifying the CO$_2$ emissions associated with each computational strategy, we evaluate the trade-offs between predictive efficacy and environmental cost. Our results reveal multiple hybrid ML/DFT strategies that optimize different points along the accuracy--emissions front. We find that direct prediction of scalar quantities, such as maximum efficiency, is significantly more tractable than using predicted absorption spectra as an intermediate step. Interestingly, ML models trained on DFT data can outperform DFT workflows using alternative exchange--correlation functionals in screening applications, highlighting the consistency and utility of data-driven approaches. We also assess strategies to improve ML-driven screening through expanded datasets and improved model architectures tailored to PV-relevant features. This work provides a quantitative framework for building low-emission, high-throughput discovery pipelines.

Distributed Representations of Atoms and Materials for Machine Learning

The use of machine learning is becoming increasingly common in computational materials science. To build effective models of the chemistry of materials, useful machine-based representations of atoms and their compounds are required. We derive distributed representations of compounds from their chemical formulas only, via pooling operations of distributed representations of atoms. These compound representations are evaluated on ten different tasks, such as the prediction of formation energy and band gap, and are found to be competitive with existing benchmarks that make use of structure, and even superior in cases where only composition is available. Finally, we introduce a new approach for learning distributed representations of atoms, named SkipAtom, which makes use of the growing information in materials structure databases.