Agile Online Model Selection: Resolving Adaptation Lag via Safeguarded Large Learning Rates

Maintaining predictive accuracy in non-stationary environments requires online model selection to adapt autonomously to unknown distribution shifts. However, existing tuning-free algorithms face a fundamental trade-off between robustness and agility. Specifically, to ensure dynamic regret bounds, they must restrict learning rates to small constants (e.g., $O(1)$). This restriction inevitably causes significant adaptation lag during abrupt changes. To resolve this, we propose a novel optimistic online mirror descent that utilizes safeguarded large learning rates up to $Θ(T)$, where $T$ is the number of rounds. Our key technical contribution is a post-hoc penalty mechanism that dynamically monitors unstable updates and excludes learning rates incurring excessive regret, eliminating the need for restrictive a priori constraints. We show that the cumulative penalty remains $O(\log T)$, allowing our algorithm to match near-optimal worst-case guarantees while achieving superior rates in benign cases. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and eleven diverse real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach reduces the adaptation lag from hundreds of rounds to a few rounds, consistently outperforming tuning-free baselines.

Improved Impossible Tuning and Lipschitz-Adaptive Universal Online Learning with Gradient Variations

A central goal in online learning is to achieve adaptivity to unknown problem characteristics, such as environmental changes captured by gradient variation (GV), function curvature (universal online learning, UOL), and gradient scales (Lipschitz adaptivity, LA). Simultaneously achieving these with optimal performance is a major challenge, partly due to limitations in algorithms for prediction with expert advice. These algorithms often serve as meta-algorithms in online ensemble frameworks, and their sub-optimality hinders overall UOL performance. Specifically, existing algorithms addressing the ``impossible tuning'' issue incur an excess $\sqrt{\log T}$ factor in their regret bound compared to the lower bound. To solve this problem, we propose a novel optimistic online mirror descent algorithm with an auxiliary initial round using large learning rates. This design enables a refined analysis where a generated negative term cancels the gap-related factor, resolving the impossible tuning issue up to $\log\log T$ factors. Leveraging our improved algorithm as a meta-algorithm, we develop the first UOL algorithm that simultaneously achieves state-of-the-art GV bounds and LA under standard assumptions. Our UOL result overcomes key limitations of prior works, notably resolving the conflict between LA mechanisms and regret analysis for GV bounds -- an open problem highlighted by Xie et al.