Long-Term Probabilistic Forecast of Vegetation Conditions Using Climate Attributes in the Four Corners Region

Weather conditions can drastically alter the state of crops and rangelands, and in turn, impact the incomes and food security of individuals worldwide. Satellite-based remote sensing offers an effective way to monitor vegetation and climate variables on regional and global scales. The annual peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from satellite observations, is closely associated with crop development, rangeland biomass, and vegetation growth. Although various machine learning methods have been developed to forecast NDVI over short time ranges, such as one-month-ahead predictions, long-term forecasting approaches, such as one-year-ahead predictions of vegetation conditions, are not yet available. To fill this gap, we develop a two-phase machine learning model to forecast the one-year-ahead peak NDVI over high-resolution grids, using the Four Corners region of the Southwestern United States as a testbed. In phase one, we identify informative climate attributes, including precipitation and maximum vapor pressure deficit, and develop the generalized parallel Gaussian process that captures the relationship between climate attributes and NDVI. In phase two, we forecast these climate attributes using historical data at least one year before the NDVI prediction month, which then serve as inputs to forecast the peak NDVI at each spatial grid. We developed open-source tools that outperform alternative methods for both gross NDVI and grid-based NDVI one-year forecasts, providing information that can help farmers and ranchers make actionable plans a year in advance.

Investigating the Segment Anything Foundation Model for Mapping Smallholder Agriculture Field Boundaries Without Training Labels

Accurate mapping of agricultural field boundaries is crucial for enhancing outcomes like precision agriculture, crop monitoring, and yield estimation. However, extracting these boundaries from satellite images is challenging, especially for smallholder farms and data-scarce environments. This study explores the Segment Anything Model (SAM) to delineate agricultural field boundaries in Bihar, India, using 2-meter resolution SkySat imagery without additional training. We evaluate SAM's performance across three model checkpoints, various input sizes, multi-date satellite images, and edge-enhanced imagery. Our results show that SAM correctly identifies about 58% of field boundaries, comparable to other approaches requiring extensive training data. Using different input image sizes improves accuracy, with the most significant improvement observed when using multi-date satellite images. This work establishes proof of concept for using SAM and maximizing its potential in agricultural field boundary mapping. Our work highlights SAM's potential in delineating agriculture field boundary in training-data scarce settings to enable a wide range of agriculture related analysis.