Supercharging Bayesian Inference with Reliable AI-Informed Priors

Modern predictive systems encode beliefs that can act as useful prior information for statistical inference in data-limited settings. Using them for prior construction introduces a tradeoff: an informative prior built from a predictive model can sharpen inference from limited data, but also risks propagating error from the model into the posterior. We propose a framework for AI-informed prior elicitation that mitigates this tension by rectifying the AI-induced law that generates synthetic data before using it to inform a prior. The rectified law can be embedded into synthetic data-driven prior elicitation techniques, including as a base measure in a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the data-generating process. We refer to the resulting prior and corresponding posterior as the rectified AI prior and rectified AI posterior. We establish Gaussian asymptotics for the rectified AI posterior under non-vanishing prior strength and derive a first-order expression for its centering bias. Our rectified AI priors substantially reduce bias compared to standard approaches, improve the coverage of credible intervals, and make AI-powered prior information more reliable. We additionally apply the rectified AI prior to a real skin disease classification task and show that it can meaningfully boost predictive performance.

StyleCineGAN: Landscape Cinemagraph Generation using a Pre-trained StyleGAN

We propose a method that can generate cinemagraphs automatically from a still landscape image using a pre-trained StyleGAN. Inspired by the success of recent unconditional video generation, we leverage a powerful pre-trained image generator to synthesize high-quality cinemagraphs. Unlike previous approaches that mainly utilize the latent space of a pre-trained StyleGAN, our approach utilizes its deep feature space for both GAN inversion and cinemagraph generation. Specifically, we propose multi-scale deep feature warping (MSDFW), which warps the intermediate features of a pre-trained StyleGAN at different resolutions. By using MSDFW, the generated cinemagraphs are of high resolution and exhibit plausible looping animation. We demonstrate the superiority of our method through user studies and quantitative comparisons with state-of-the-art cinemagraph generation methods and a video generation method that uses a pre-trained StyleGAN.