The Price of Robustness: Stable Classifiers Need Overparameterization

The relationship between overparameterization, stability, and generalization remains incompletely understood in the setting of discontinuous classifiers. We address this gap by establishing a generalization bound for finite function classes that improves inversely with class stability, defined as the expected distance to the decision boundary in the input domain (margin). Interpreting class stability as a quantifiable notion of robustness, we derive as a corollary a law of robustness for classification that extends the results of Bubeck and Sellke beyond smoothness assumptions to discontinuous functions. In particular, any interpolating model with $p \approx n$ parameters on $n$ data points must be unstable, implying that substantial overparameterization is necessary to achieve high stability. We obtain analogous results for parameterized infinite function classes by analyzing a stronger robustness measure derived from the margin in the codomain, which we refer to as the normalized co-stability. Experiments support our theory: stability increases with model size and correlates with test performance, while traditional norm-based measures remain largely uninformative.

Graph Neural Networks for Enhancing Ensemble Forecasts of Extreme Rainfall

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in capturing extreme weather. While post-processing techniques aim to enhance forecast accuracy, they rarely focus on precipitation, which exhibits complex spatial dependencies and tail behavior. Our novel framework leverages graph neural networks to post-process ensemble forecasts, specifically modeling the extremes of the underlying distribution. This allows to capture spatial dependencies and improves forecast accuracy for extreme events, thus leading to more reliable forecasts and mitigating risks of extreme precipitation and flooding.