Can Perturbations Help Reduce Investment Risks? Risk-Aware Stock Recommendation via Split Variational Adversarial Training

In the stock market, a successful investment requires a good balance between profits and risks. Recently, stock recommendation has been widely studied in quantitative investment to select stocks with higher return ratios for investors. Despite the success in making profits, most existing recommendation approaches are still weak in risk control, which may lead to intolerable paper losses in practical stock investing. To effectively reduce risks, we draw inspiration from adversarial perturbations and propose a novel Split Variational Adversarial Training (SVAT) framework for risk-aware stock recommendation. Essentially, SVAT encourages the model to be sensitive to adversarial perturbations of risky stock examples and enhances the model's risk awareness by learning from perturbations. To generate representative adversarial examples as risk indicators, we devise a variational perturbation generator to model diverse risk factors. Particularly, the variational architecture enables our method to provide a rough risk quantification for investors, showing an additional advantage of interpretability. Experiments on three real-world stock market datasets show that SVAT effectively reduces the volatility of the stock recommendation model and outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods by more than 30% in terms of risk-adjusted profits.

HINNPerf: Hierarchical Interaction Neural Network for Performance Prediction of Configurable Systems

Modern software systems are usually highly configurable, providing users with customized functionality through various configuration options. Understanding how system performance varies with different option combinations is important to determine optimal configurations that meet specific requirements. Due to the complex interactions among multiple options and the high cost of performance measurement under a huge configuration space, it is challenging to study how different configurations influence the system performance. To address these challenges, we propose HINNPerf, a novel hierarchical interaction neural network for performance prediction of configurable systems. HINNPerf employs the embedding method and hierarchic network blocks to model the complicated interplay between configuration options, which improves the prediction accuracy of the method. Besides, we devise a hierarchical regularization strategy to enhance the model robustness. Empirical results on 10 real-world configurable systems show that our method statistically significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by achieving average 22.67% improvement in prediction accuracy. In addition, combined with the Integrated Gradients method, the designed hierarchical architecture provides some insights about the interaction complexity and the significance of configuration options, which might help users and developers better understand how the configurable system works and efficiently identify significant options affecting the performance.

Towards Better Forecasting by Fusing Near and Distant Future Visions

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important yet challenging problem in machine learning. Most existing approaches only forecast the series value of one future moment, ignoring the interactions between predictions of future moments with different temporal distance. Such a deficiency probably prevents the model from getting enough information about the future, thus limiting the forecasting accuracy. To address this problem, we propose Multi-Level Construal Neural Network (MLCNN), a novel multi-task deep learning framework. Inspired by the Construal Level Theory of psychology, this model aims to improve the predictive performance by fusing forecasting information (i.e., future visions) of different future time. We first use the Convolution Neural Network to extract multi-level abstract representations of the raw data for near and distant future predictions. We then model the interplay between multiple predictive tasks and fuse their future visions through a modified Encoder-Decoder architecture. Finally, we combine traditional Autoregression model with the neural network to solve the scale insensitive problem. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that our method achieves statistically significant improvements compared to the most state-of-the-art baseline methods, with average 4.59% reduction on RMSE metric and average 6.87% reduction on MAE metric.