Conformalized Answer Set Prediction for Knowledge Graph Embedding

Knowledge graph embeddings (KGE) apply machine learning methods on knowledge graphs (KGs) to provide non-classical reasoning capabilities based on similarities and analogies. The learned KG embeddings are typically used to answer queries by ranking all potential answers, but rankings often lack a meaningful probabilistic interpretation - lower-ranked answers do not necessarily have a lower probability of being true. This limitation makes it difficult to distinguish plausible from implausible answers, posing challenges for the application of KGE methods in high-stakes domains like medicine. We address this issue by applying the theory of conformal prediction that allows generating answer sets, which contain the correct answer with probabilistic guarantees. We explain how conformal prediction can be used to generate such answer sets for link prediction tasks. Our empirical evaluation on four benchmark datasets using six representative KGE methods validates that the generated answer sets satisfy the probabilistic guarantees given by the theory of conformal prediction. We also demonstrate that the generated answer sets often have a sensible size and that the size adapts well with respect to the difficulty of the query.

MALIBO: Meta-learning for Likelihood-free Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method to optimize costly black-box functions. While traditional BO optimizes each new target task from scratch, meta-learning has emerged as a way to leverage knowledge from related tasks to optimize new tasks faster. However, existing meta-learning BO methods rely on surrogate models that suffer from scalability issues and are sensitive to observations with different scales and noise types across tasks. Moreover, they often overlook the uncertainty associated with task similarity. This leads to unreliable task adaptation when only limited observations are obtained or when the new tasks differ significantly from the related tasks. To address these limitations, we propose a novel meta-learning BO approach that bypasses the surrogate model and directly learns the utility of queries across tasks. Our method explicitly models task uncertainty and includes an auxiliary model to enable robust adaptation to new tasks. Extensive experiments show that our method demonstrates strong anytime performance and outperforms state-of-the-art meta-learning BO methods in various benchmarks.