Towards Operational Streamflow Forecasting in the Limpopo River Basin using Long Short-Term Memory Networks

Robust hydrological simulation is key for sustainable development, water management strategies, and climate change adaptation. In recent years, deep learning methods have been demonstrated to outperform mechanistic models at the task of hydrological discharge simulation. Adoption of these methods has been catalysed by the proliferation of large sample hydrology datasets, consisting of the observed discharge and meteorological drivers, along with geological and topographical catchment descriptors. Deep learning methods infer rainfall-runoff characteristics that have been shown to generalise across catchments, benefitting from the data diversity in large datasets. Despite this, application to catchments in Africa has been limited. The lack of adoption of deep learning methodologies is primarily due to sparsity or lack of the spatiotemporal observational data required to enable downstream model training. We therefore investigate the application of deep learning models, including LSTMs, for hydrological discharge simulation in the transboundary Limpopo River basin, emphasising application to data scarce regions. We conduct a number of computational experiments primarily focused on assessing the impact of varying the LSTM model input data on performance. Results confirm that data constraints remain the largest obstacle to deep learning applications across African river basins. We further outline the impact of human influence on data-driven modelling which is a commonly overlooked aspect of data-driven large-sample hydrology approaches and investigate solutions for model adaptation under smaller datasets. Additionally, we include recommendations for future efforts towards seasonal hydrological discharge prediction and direct comparison or inclusion of SWAT model outputs, as well as architectural improvements.

Learning to Estimate and Refine Fluid Motion with Physical Dynamics

Extracting information on fluid motion directly from images is challenging. Fluid flow represents a complex dynamic system governed by the Navier-Stokes equations. General optical flow methods are typically designed for rigid body motion, and thus struggle if applied to fluid motion estimation directly. Further, optical flow methods only focus on two consecutive frames without utilising historical temporal information, while the fluid motion (velocity field) can be considered a continuous trajectory constrained by time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). This discrepancy has the potential to induce physically inconsistent estimations. Here we propose an unsupervised learning based prediction-correction scheme for fluid flow estimation. An estimate is first given by a PDE-constrained optical flow predictor, which is then refined by a physical based corrector. The proposed approach outperforms optical flow methods and shows competitive results compared to existing supervised learning based methods on a benchmark dataset. Furthermore, the proposed approach can generalize to complex real-world fluid scenarios where ground truth information is effectively unknowable. Finally, experiments demonstrate that the physical corrector can refine flow estimates by mimicking the operator splitting method commonly utilised in fluid dynamical simulation.