Rethinking Uncertainty Quantification and Entanglement in Image Segmentation

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in safety-critical applications such as medical image segmentation. Total uncertainty is typically decomposed into data-related aleatoric uncertainty (AU) and model-related epistemic uncertainty (EU). Many methods exist for modeling AU (such as Probabilistic UNet, Diffusion) and EU (such as ensembles, MC Dropout), but it is unclear how they interact when combined. Additionally, recent work has revealed substantial entanglement between AU and EU, undermining the interpretability and practical usefulness of the decomposition. We present a comprehensive empirical study covering a broad range of AU-EU model combinations, propose a metric to quantify uncertainty entanglement, and evaluate both across downstream UQ tasks. For out-of-distribution detection, ensembles exhibit consistently lower entanglement and superior performance. For ambiguity modeling and calibration the best models are dataset-dependent, with softmax/SSN-based methods performing well and Probabilistic UNets being less entangled. A softmax ensemble fares remarkably well on all tasks. Finally, we analyze potential sources of uncertainty entanglement and outline directions for mitigating this effect.

Towards Agnostic and Holistic Universal Image Segmentation with Bit Diffusion

This paper introduces a diffusion-based framework for universal image segmentation, making agnostic segmentation possible without depending on mask-based frameworks and instead predicting the full segmentation in a holistic manner. We present several key adaptations to diffusion models, which are important in this discrete setting. Notably, we show that a location-aware palette with our 2D gray code ordering improves performance. Adding a final tanh activation function is crucial for discrete data. On optimizing diffusion parameters, the sigmoid loss weighting consistently outperforms alternatives, regardless of the prediction type used, and we settle on x-prediction. While our current model does not yet surpass leading mask-based architectures, it narrows the performance gap and introduces unique capabilities, such as principled ambiguity modeling, that these models lack. All models were trained from scratch, and we believe that combining our proposed improvements with large-scale pretraining or promptable conditioning could lead to competitive models.

Diffusion Based Ambiguous Image Segmentation

Medical image segmentation often involves inherent uncertainty due to variations in expert annotations. Capturing this uncertainty is an important goal and previous works have used various generative image models for the purpose of representing the full distribution of plausible expert ground truths. In this work, we explore the design space of diffusion models for generative segmentation, investigating the impact of noise schedules, prediction types, and loss weightings. Notably, we find that making the noise schedule harder with input scaling significantly improves performance. We conclude that x- and v-prediction outperform epsilon-prediction, likely because the diffusion process is in the discrete segmentation domain. Many loss weightings achieve similar performance as long as they give enough weight to the end of the diffusion process. We base our experiments on the LIDC-IDRI lung lesion dataset and obtain state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. Additionally, we introduce a randomly cropped variant of the LIDC-IDRI dataset that is better suited for uncertainty in image segmentation. Our model also achieves SOTA in this harder setting.