Thunderstorm nowcasting with deep learning: a multi-hazard data fusion model

Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard types. The model can utilize multiple data sources; we use data from weather radar, lightning detection, satellite visible/infrared imagery, numerical weather prediction and digital elevation models. It can be trained to operate with any combination of these sources, such that predictions can still be provided if one or more of the sources become unavailable. We demonstrate the ability of the model to predict lightning, hail and heavy precipitation probabilistically on a 1 km resolution grid, with a time resolution of 5 min and lead times up to 60 min. Shapley values quantify the importance of the different data sources, showing that the weather radar products are the most important predictors for all three hazard types.