Validation-Gated Multi-Agent Governance for Online Adaptation of Thermal-Hydraulic Surrogate Models under Operating-Regime Shift

Artificial-intelligence surrogates can support second-by-second thermal-hydraulic forecasting, but models selected and frozen offline may become condition-locked once deployed outside their pretraining envelope. This study develops a guarded continual-adaptation framework for experimental thermal-hydraulic loop data in which role-separated agents - Monitor, Diagnosis, Adaptation, Safety-Auditor, and Orchestrator - diagnose error signatures, prioritize candidate model families, and review promotions, while deterministic champion-challenger gates and background shadow learning retain final authority over model replacement. Seven surrogate families were screened by blocked three-fold cross-validation, and a temporal Fourier neural operator was selected as the initial champion for 60-s-history-to-10-s-trajectory forecasting on two held-out transients, with three seeds per adaptive mode. Static deployment gave a channel-averaged MAE of 7.06 and a 56.8% warning-exceedance ratio; rule-based adaptation reduced MAE to 6.54, whereas shadow refresh alone remained close to Static. The MA-Full mode, in which the role-separated multi-agent council reviews every evaluated stream step, achieved the lowest mean error, 5.72, and 35.8% exceedance, corresponding to a 19.0% improvement over Static. Paired bootstrap intervals against Static excluded zero, although intervals among adaptive modes overlapped and the six paired units limit broad statistical claims. Validated promotions from the neural operator to Transformer and graph neural network indicate that logged, gate-controlled adaptation can support auditable surrogate evolution while deterministic gates retain deployment authority.

A Comparison of Parametric Dynamic Mode Decomposition Algorithms for Thermal-Hydraulics Applications

In recent years, algorithms aiming at learning models from available data have become quite popular due to two factors: 1) the significant developments in Artificial Intelligence techniques and 2) the availability of large amounts of data. Nevertheless, this topic has already been addressed by methodologies belonging to the Reduced Order Modelling framework, of which perhaps the most famous equation-free technique is Dynamic Mode Decomposition. This algorithm aims to learn the best linear model that represents the physical phenomena described by a time series dataset: its output is a best state operator of the underlying dynamical system that can be used, in principle, to advance the original dataset in time even beyond its span. However, in its standard formulation, this technique cannot deal with parametric time series, meaning that a different linear model has to be derived for each parameter realization. Research on this is ongoing, and some versions of a parametric Dynamic Mode Decomposition already exist. This work contributes to this research field by comparing the different algorithms presently deployed and assessing their advantages and shortcomings compared to each other. To this aim, three different thermal-hydraulics problems are considered: two benchmark 'flow over cylinder' test cases at diverse Reynolds numbers, whose datasets are, respectively, obtained with the FEniCS finite element solver and retrieved from the CFDbench dataset, and the DYNASTY experimental facility operating at Politecnico di Milano, which studies the natural circulation established by internally heated fluids for Generation IV nuclear applications, whose dataset was generated using the RELAP5 nodal solver.