Spoiler Alert: Narrative Forecasting as a Metric for Tension in LLM Storytelling

LLMs have so far failed both to generate consistently compelling stories and to recognize this failure--on the leading creative-writing benchmark (EQ-Bench), LLM judges rank zero-shot AI stories above New Yorker short stories, a gold standard for literary fiction. We argue that existing rubrics overlook a key dimension of compelling human stories: narrative tension. We introduce the 100-Endings metric, which walks through a story sentence by sentence: at each position, a model predicts how the story will end 100 times given only the text so far, and we measure tension as how often predictions fail to match the ground truth. Beyond the mismatch rate, the sentence-level curve yields complementary statistics, such as inflection rate, a geometric measure of how frequently the curve reverses direction, tracking twists and revelations. Unlike rubric-based judges, 100-Endings correctly ranks New Yorker stories far above LLM outputs. Grounded in narratological principles, we design a story-generation pipeline using structural constraints, including analysis of story templates, idea formulation, and narrative scaffolding. Our pipeline significantly increases narrative tension as measured by the 100-Endings metric, while maintaining performance on the EQ-Bench leaderboard.

Critical Confabulation: Can LLMs Hallucinate for Social Good?

LLMs hallucinate, yet some confabulations can have social affordances if carefully bounded. We propose critical confabulation (inspired by critical fabulation from literary and social theory), the use of LLM hallucinations to "fill-in-the-gap" for omissions in archives due to social and political inequality, and reconstruct divergent yet evidence-bound narratives for history's "hidden figures". We simulate these gaps with an open-ended narrative cloze task: asking LLMs to generate a masked event in a character-centric timeline sourced from a novel corpus of unpublished texts. We evaluate audited (for data contamination), fully-open models (the OLMo-2 family) and unaudited open-weight and proprietary baselines under a range of prompts designed to elicit controlled and useful hallucinations. Our findings validate LLMs' foundational narrative understanding capabilities to perform critical confabulation, and show how controlled and well-specified hallucinations can support LLM applications for knowledge production without collapsing speculation into a lack of historical accuracy and fidelity.