Extreme-value forest fire prediction A study of the Loss Function in an Ordinality Scheme

Wildfires are highly imbalanced natural hazards in both space and severity, making the prediction of extreme events particularly challenging. In this work, we introduce the first ordinal classification framework for forecasting wildfire severity levels directly aligned with operational decision-making in France. Our study investigates the influence of loss-function design on the ability of neural models to predict rare yet critical high-severity fire occurrences. We compare standard cross-entropy with several ordinal-aware objectives, including the proposed probabilistic TDeGPD loss derived from a truncated discrete exponentiated Generalized Pareto Distribution. Through extensive benchmarking over multiple architectures and real operational data, we show that ordinal supervision substantially improves model performance over conventional approaches. In particular, the Weighted Kappa Loss (WKLoss) achieves the best overall results, with more than +0.1 IoU (Intersection Over Union) gain on the most extreme severity classes while maintaining competitive calibration quality. However, performance remains limited for the rarest events due to their extremely low representation in the dataset. These findings highlight the importance of integrating both severity ordering, data imbalance considerations, and seasonality risk into wildfire forecasting systems. Future work will focus on incorporating seasonal dynamics and uncertainty information into training to further improve the reliability of extreme-event prediction.

A Survey on Data-Driven Fault Diagnostic Techniques for Marine Diesel Engines

Fault diagnosis in marine diesel engines is vital for maritime safety and operational efficiency.These engines are integral to marine vessels, and their reliable performance is crucial for safenavigation. Swift identification and resolution of faults are essential to prevent breakdowns,enhance safety, and reduce the risk of catastrophic failures at sea. Proactive fault diagnosisfacilitates timely maintenance, minimizes downtime, and ensures the overall reliability andlongevity of marine diesel engines. This paper explores the importance of fault diagnosis,emphasizing subsystems, common faults, and recent advancements in data-driven approachesfor effective marine diesel engine maintenance