Multi-Quantile Regression for Extreme Precipitation Downscaling

Deep super-resolution networks for precipitation downscaling achieve strong bulk skill yet systematically under-predict the heavy-tail events that drive flood risk. We demonstrate that the primary obstacle is the loss function, not the data: under intensity-weighted MAE, real and synthetic labels at the same input are simply averaged, meaning data augmentation shifts the predicted mean rather than the conditional distribution. We resolve this with Q-SRDRN, a multi-quantile super-resolution network trained with pinball loss at tau in 0.50, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999. Two CNN-specific design choices make this practical: IncrementBound enforces monotonicity while preserving each quantile channel's gradient identity, and separate per-quantile output heads provide independent filter banks for bulk and tail detection. Under this design, data augmentation via cVAE becomes complementary: the median head absorbs synthetic patterns without contaminating upper quantiles. Empirically, on Florida (convective/tropical-cyclone dominated), the un-augmented Q-SRDRN P999 head detects 1,598 of 2,111 events at 200 mm/day versus 88 for the deterministic baseline--an 18x detection-rate gain (4.2% to 75.7%)--with 63% lower KL divergence and 3.9% lower RMSE. Adding cVAE-generated samples lifts the P50 channel from 14 to 1,038 hits at 200 mm/day. On California (atmospheric-river dominated), the architecture reaches near-perfect detection (P999 SEDI >= 0.996 through 300 mm/day). On Texas, the baseline catches only 2 of 10,720 events at 200 mm/day while the P999 head catches 8,776 (81.9%). While the cVAE does not transfer across regions, multi-quantile regression captures extremes wherever the large-scale signal is strong, while augmentation rescues the median where it is not.

Feature-Function Curvature Analysis: A Geometric Framework for Explaining Differentiable Models

Explainable AI (XAI) is critical for building trust in complex machine learning models, yet mainstream attribution methods often provide an incomplete, static picture of a model's final state. By collapsing a feature's role into a single score, they are confounded by non-linearity and interactions. To address this, we introduce Feature-Function Curvature Analysis (FFCA), a novel framework that analyzes the geometry of a model's learned function. FFCA produces a 4-dimensional signature for each feature, quantifying its: (1) Impact, (2) Volatility, (3) Non-linearity, and (4) Interaction. Crucially, we extend this framework into Dynamic Archetype Analysis, which tracks the evolution of these signatures throughout the training process. This temporal view moves beyond explaining what a model learned to revealing how it learns. We provide the first direct, empirical evidence of hierarchical learning, showing that models consistently learn simple linear effects before complex interactions. Furthermore, this dynamic analysis provides novel, practical diagnostics for identifying insufficient model capacity and predicting the onset of overfitting. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that FFCA, through its static and dynamic components, provides the essential geometric context that transforms model explanation from simple quantification to a nuanced, trustworthy analysis of the entire learning process.