Generative Adversarial Models for Extreme Downscaling of Climate Datasets

Addressing the challenges of climate change requires accurate and high-resolution mapping of climate and weather variables. However, many existing climate datasets, such as the gridded outputs of the state-of-the-art numerical climate models (e.g., general circulation models), are only available at very coarse spatial resolutions due to the model complexity and extremely high computational demand. Deep-learning-based methods, particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs) and their variants, have proved effective for refining natural images, and have shown great promise in improving scientific datasets. In this paper, we describe a conditional GAN-based geospatial downscaling method for extreme downscaling of gridded climate datasets. Compared to most existing methods, the method can generate high-resolution accurate climate datasets from very low-resolution inputs. More importantly, the method explicitly considers the uncertainty inherent to the downscaling process that tends to be ignored in existing methods. Given an input, the method can produce a multitude of plausible high-resolution samples instead of one single deterministic result. These samples allow for an empirical exploration and inferences of model uncertainty and robustness. With a case study of gridded climate datasets (wind velocity and solar irradiance), we demonstrate the performances of the framework in downscaling tasks with very high scaling factors (up to $64\times$) and highlight the advantages of the framework with a comprehensive comparison with commonly used downscaling methods, including area-to-point (ATP) kriging, deep image prior (DIP), enhanced deep super-resolution network (EDSR), enhanced super-resolution generative adversarial networks (ESRGAN), and physics-informed resolution-enhancing GAN (PhIRE GAN).

Forecasting People's Needs in Hurricane Events from Social Network

Social networks can serve as a valuable communication channel for calls for help, offering assistance, and coordinating rescue activities in disaster. Social networks such as Twitter allow users to continuously update relevant information, which is especially useful during a crisis, where the rapidly changing conditions make it crucial to be able to access accurate information promptly. Social media helps those directly affected to inform others of conditions on the ground in real time and thus enables rescue workers to coordinate their efforts more effectively, better meeting the survivors' need. This paper presents a new sequence to sequence based framework for forecasting people's needs during disasters using social media and weather data. It consists of two Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, one of which encodes input sequences of weather information and the other plays as a conditional decoder that decodes the encoded vector and forecasts the survivors' needs. Case studies utilizing data collected during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma in 2017 were analyzed and the results compared with those obtained using a statistical language model n-gram and an LSTM generative model. Our proposed sequence to sequence method forecast people's needs more successfully than either of the other models. This new approach shows great promise for enhancing disaster management activities such as evacuation planning and commodity flow management.