Harnessing machine learning for accurate treatment of overlapping opacity species in GCMs

To understand high precision observations of exoplanets and brown dwarfs, we need detailed and complex general circulation models (GCMs) that incorporate hydrodynamics, chemistry, and radiation. In this study, we specifically examine the coupling between chemistry and radiation in GCMs and compare different methods for mixing opacities of different chemical species in the correlated-k assumption, when equilibrium chemistry cannot be assumed. We propose a fast machine learning method based on DeepSets (DS), which effectively combines individual correlated-k opacities (k-tables). We evaluate the DS method alongside other published methods like adaptive equivalent extinction (AEE) and random overlap with rebinning and resorting (RORR). We integrate these mixing methods into our GCM (expeRT/MITgcm) and assess their accuracy and performance for the example of the hot Jupiter HD~209458 b. Our findings indicate that the DS method is both accurate and efficient for GCM usage, whereas RORR is too slow. Additionally, we observe that the accuracy of AEE depends on its specific implementation and may introduce numerical issues in achieving radiative transfer solution convergence. We then apply the DS mixing method in a simplified chemical disequilibrium situation, where we model the rainout of TiO and VO, and confirm that the rainout of TiO and VO would hinder the formation of a stratosphere. To further expedite the development of consistent disequilibrium chemistry calculations in GCMs, we provide documentation and code for coupling the DS mixing method with correlated-k radiative transfer solvers. The DS method has been extensively tested to be accurate enough for GCMs, however, other methods might be needed for accelerating atmospheric retrievals.

Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a simulator posing the need for simulation-based inference (SBI). However, the existing algorithms can yield overconfident posteriors (Hermans *et al.*, 2022) defeating the whole purpose of credibility if the uncertainty quantification is inaccurate. We propose to include a calibration term directly into the training objective of the neural model in selected amortized SBI techniques. By introducing a relaxation of the classical formulation of calibration error we enable end-to-end backpropagation. The proposed method is not tied to any particular neural model and brings moderate computational overhead compared to the profits it introduces. It is directly applicable to existing computational pipelines allowing reliable black-box posterior inference. We empirically show on six benchmark problems that the proposed method achieves competitive or better results in terms of coverage and expected posterior density than the previously existing approaches.

Robust Ocean Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations Using Fourier Neural Operators

In climate simulations, small-scale processes shape ocean dynamics but remain computationally expensive to resolve directly. For this reason, their contributions are commonly approximated using empirical parameterizations, which lead to significant errors in long-term projections. In this work, we develop parameterizations based on Fourier Neural Operators, showcasing their accuracy and generalizability in comparison to other approaches. Finally, we discuss the potential and limitations of neural networks operating in the frequency domain, paving the way for future investigation.

Score-based Data Assimilation for a Two-Layer Quasi-Geostrophic Model

Data assimilation addresses the problem of identifying plausible state trajectories of dynamical systems given noisy or incomplete observations. In geosciences, it presents challenges due to the high-dimensionality of geophysical dynamical systems, often exceeding millions of dimensions. This work assesses the scalability of score-based data assimilation (SDA), a novel data assimilation method, in the context of such systems. We propose modifications to the score network architecture aimed at significantly reducing memory consumption and execution time. We demonstrate promising results for a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model.

Dynamic NeRFs for Soccer Scenes

The long-standing problem of novel view synthesis has many applications, notably in sports broadcasting. Photorealistic novel view synthesis of soccer actions, in particular, is of enormous interest to the broadcast industry. Yet only a few industrial solutions have been proposed, and even fewer that achieve near-broadcast quality of the synthetic replays. Except for their setup of multiple static cameras around the playfield, the best proprietary systems disclose close to no information about their inner workings. Leveraging multiple static cameras for such a task indeed presents a challenge rarely tackled in the literature, for a lack of public datasets: the reconstruction of a large-scale, mostly static environment, with small, fast-moving elements. Recently, the emergence of neural radiance fields has induced stunning progress in many novel view synthesis applications, leveraging deep learning principles to produce photorealistic results in the most challenging settings. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of basing a solution to the task on dynamic NeRFs, i.e., neural models purposed to reconstruct general dynamic content. We compose synthetic soccer environments and conduct multiple experiments using them, identifying key components that help reconstruct soccer scenes with dynamic NeRFs. We show that, although this approach cannot fully meet the quality requirements for the target application, it suggests promising avenues toward a cost-efficient, automatic solution. We also make our work dataset and code publicly available, with the goal to encourage further efforts from the research community on the task of novel view synthesis for dynamic soccer scenes. For code, data, and video results, please see https://soccernerfs.isach.be.

Score-based Data Assimilation

Data assimilation, in its most comprehensive form, addresses the Bayesian inverse problem of identifying plausible state trajectories that explain noisy or incomplete observations of stochastic dynamical systems. Various approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, including particle-based and variational methods. However, most algorithms depend on the transition dynamics for inference, which becomes intractable for long time horizons or for high-dimensional systems with complex dynamics, such as oceans or atmospheres. In this work, we introduce score-based data assimilation for trajectory inference. We learn a score-based generative model of state trajectories based on the key insight that the score of an arbitrarily long trajectory can be decomposed into a series of scores over short segments. After training, inference is carried out using the score model, in a non-autoregressive manner by generating all states simultaneously. Quite distinctively, we decouple the observation model from the training procedure and use it only at inference to guide the generative process, which enables a wide range of zero-shot observation scenarios. We present theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of our method.

Policy Gradient Algorithms Implicitly Optimize by Continuation

Direct policy optimization in reinforcement learning is usually solved with policy-gradient algorithms, which optimize policy parameters via stochastic gradient ascent. This paper provides a new theoretical interpretation and justification of these algorithms. First, we formulate direct policy optimization in the optimization by continuation framework. The latter is a framework for optimizing nonconvex functions where a sequence of surrogate objective functions, called continuations, are locally optimized. Second, we show that optimizing affine Gaussian policies and performing entropy regularization can be interpreted as implicitly optimizing deterministic policies by continuation. Based on these theoretical results, we argue that exploration in policy-gradient algorithms consists in computing a continuation of the return of the policy at hand, and that the variance of policies should be history-dependent functions adapted to avoid local extrema rather than to maximize the return of the policy.

Balancing Simulation-based Inference for Conservative Posteriors

Conservative inference is a major concern in simulation-based inference. It has been shown that commonly used algorithms can produce overconfident posterior approximations. Balancing has empirically proven to be an effective way to mitigate this issue. However, its application remains limited to neural ratio estimation. In this work, we extend balancing to any algorithm that provides a posterior density. In particular, we introduce a balanced version of both neural posterior estimation and contrastive neural ratio estimation. We show empirically that the balanced versions tend to produce conservative posterior approximations on a wide variety of benchmarks. In addition, we provide an alternative interpretation of the balancing condition in terms of the $\chi^2$ divergence.

Implicit representation priors meet Riemannian geometry for Bayesian robotic grasping

Robotic grasping in highly noisy environments presents complex challenges, especially with limited prior knowledge about the scene. In particular, identifying good grasping poses with Bayesian inference becomes difficult due to two reasons: i) generating data from uninformative priors proves to be inefficient, and ii) the posterior often entails a complex distribution defined on a Riemannian manifold. In this study, we explore the use of implicit representations to construct scene-dependent priors, thereby enabling the application of efficient simulation-based Bayesian inference algorithms for determining successful grasp poses in unstructured environments. Results from both simulation and physical benchmarks showcase the high success rate and promising potential of this approach.

Graph-informed simulation-based inference for models of active matter

Many collective systems exist in nature far from equilibrium, ranging from cellular sheets up to flocks of birds. These systems reflect a form of active matter, whereby individual material components have internal energy. Under specific parameter regimes, these active systems undergo phase transitions whereby small fluctuations of single components can lead to global changes to the rheology of the system. Simulations and methods from statistical physics are typically used to understand and predict these phase transitions for real-world observations. In this work, we demonstrate that simulation-based inference can be used to robustly infer active matter parameters from system observations. Moreover, we demonstrate that a small number (from one to three) snapshots of the system can be used for parameter inference and that this graph-informed approach outperforms typical metrics such as the average velocity or mean square displacement of the system. Our work highlights that high-level system information is contained within the relational structure of a collective system and that this can be exploited to better couple models to data.