Model averaging in the space of probability distributions

This work investigates the problem of model averaging in the context of measure-valued data. Specifically, we study aggregation schemes in the space of probability distributions metrized in terms of the Wasserstein distance. The resulting aggregate models, defined via Wasserstein barycenters, are optimally calibrated to empirical data. To enhance model performance, we employ regularization schemes motivated by the standard elastic net penalization, which is shown to consistently yield models enjoying sparsity properties. The consistency properties of the proposed averaging schemes with respect to sample size are rigorously established using the variational framework of $\Gamma$-convergence. The performance of the methods is evaluated through carefully designed synthetic experiments that assess behavior across a range of distributional characteristics and stress conditions. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to a real-world dataset of insurance losses - characterized by heavy-tailed behavior - to estimate the claim size distribution and the associated tail risk.

Statistical monitoring of functional data using the notion of Fréchet mean combined with the framework of the deformation models

The aim of this paper is to investigate possible advances obtained by the implementation of the framework of Fr\'echet mean and the generalized sense of mean that it offers, in the field of statistical process monitoring and control. In particular, the case of non-linear profiles which are described by data in functional form is considered and a framework combining the notion of Fr\'echet mean and deformation models is developed. The proposed monitoring approach is implemented to the intra-day air pollution monitoring task in the city of Athens where the capabilities and advantages of the method are illustrated.