Investigating simple target-covariate relationships for Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, often outperforming supervised models in zero-shot settings. Recent TSFM architectures, such as Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS, aim to integrate covariates. In this paper, we design controlled experiments based on simple target-covariate relationships to assess this integration capability. Our results show that TabPFN-TS captures these relationships more effectively than Chronos-2, especially for short horizons, suggesting that the strong benchmark performance of Chronos-2 does not automatically translate into optimal modeling of simple covariate-target dependencies.

On the Role of Reversible Instance Normalization

Data normalization is a crucial component of deep learning models, yet its role in time series forecasting remains insufficiently understood. In this paper, we identify three central challenges for normalization in time series forecasting: temporal input distribution shift, spatial input distribution shift, and conditional output distribution shift. In this context, we revisit the widely used Reversible Instance Normalization (RevIN), by showing through ablation studies that several of its components are redundant or even detrimental. Based on these observations, we draw new perspectives to improve RevIN's robustness and generalization.