Computing Optimal Transport Maps and Wasserstein Barycenters Using Conditional Normalizing Flows

We present a novel method for efficiently computing optimal transport maps and Wasserstein barycenters in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach uses conditional normalizing flows to approximate the input distributions as invertible pushforward transformations from a common latent space. This makes it possible to directly solve the primal problem using gradient-based minimization of the transport cost, unlike previous methods that rely on dual formulations and complex adversarial optimization. We show how this approach can be extended to compute Wasserstein barycenters by solving a conditional variance minimization problem. A key advantage of our conditional architecture is that it enables the computation of barycenters for hundreds of input distributions, which was computationally infeasible with previous methods. Our numerical experiments illustrate that our approach yields accurate results across various high-dimensional tasks and compares favorably with previous state-of-the-art methods.

Conditional Forecasting of Margin Calls using Dynamic Graph Neural Networks

We introduce a novel Dynamic Graph Neural Network (DGNN) architecture for solving conditional $m$-steps ahead forecasting problems in temporal financial networks. The proposed DGNN is validated on simulated data from a temporal financial network model capturing stylized features of Interest Rate Swaps (IRSs) transaction networks, where financial entities trade swap contracts dynamically and the network topology evolves conditionally on a reference rate. The proposed model is able to produce accurate conditional forecasts of net variation margins up to a $21$-day horizon by leveraging conditional information under pre-determined stress test scenarios. Our work shows that the network dynamics can be successfully incorporated into stress-testing practices, thus providing regulators and policymakers with a crucial tool for systemic risk monitoring.