Unsupervised explainable activity prediction in competitive Nordic Walking from experimental data

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has found application in Human Activity Recognition (HAR) in competitive sports. To date, most Machine Learning (ML) approaches for HAR have relied on offline (batch) training, imposing higher computational and tagging burdens compared to online processing unsupervised approaches. Additionally, the decisions behind traditional ML predictors are opaque and require human interpretation. In this work, we apply an online processing unsupervised clustering approach based on low-cost wearable Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). The outcomes generated by the system allow for the automatic expansion of limited tagging available (e.g., by referees) within those clusters, producing pertinent information for the explainable classification stage. Specifically, our work focuses on achieving automatic explainability for predictions related to athletes' activities, distinguishing between correct, incorrect, and cheating practices in Nordic Walking. The proposed solution achieved performance metrics of close to 100 % on average.

Automatic generation of insights from workers' actions in industrial workflows with explainable Machine Learning

New technologies such as Machine Learning (ML) gave great potential for evaluating industry workflows and automatically generating key performance indicators (KPIs). However, despite established standards for measuring the efficiency of industrial machinery, there is no precise equivalent for workers' productivity, which would be highly desirable given the lack of a skilled workforce for the next generation of industry workflows. Therefore, an ML solution combining data from manufacturing processes and workers' performance for that goal is required. Additionally, in recent times intense effort has been devoted to explainable ML approaches that can automatically explain their decisions to a human operator, thus increasing their trustworthiness. We propose to apply explainable ML solutions to differentiate between expert and inexpert workers in industrial workflows, which we validate at a quality assessment industrial workstation. Regarding the methodology used, input data are captured by a manufacturing machine and stored in a NoSQL database. Data are processed to engineer features used in automatic classification and to compute workers' KPIs to predict their level of expertise (with all classification metrics exceeding 90 %). These KPIs, and the relevant features in the decisions are textually explained by natural language expansion on an explainability dashboard. These automatic explanations made it possible to infer knowledge from expert workers for inexpert workers. The latter illustrates the interest of research in self-explainable ML for automatically generating insights to improve productivity in industrial workflows.

Explainable assessment of financial experts' credibility by classifying social media forecasts and checking the predictions with actual market data

Social media include diverse interaction metrics related to user popularity, the most evident example being the number of user followers. The latter has raised concerns about the credibility of the posts by the most popular creators. However, most existing approaches to assess credibility in social media strictly consider this problem a binary classification, often based on a priori information, without checking if actual real-world facts back the users' comments. In addition, they do not provide automatic explanations of their predictions to foster their trustworthiness. In this work, we propose a credibility assessment solution for financial creators in social media that combines Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning. The reputation of the contributors is assessed by automatically classifying their forecasts on asset values by type and verifying these predictions with actual market data to approximate their probability of success. The outcome of this verification is a continuous credibility score instead of a binary result, an entirely novel contribution by this work. Moreover, social media metrics (i.e., user context) are exploited by calculating their correlation with the credibility rankings, providing insights on the interest of the end-users in financial posts and their forecasts (i.e., drop or rise). Finally, the system provides natural language explanations of its decisions based on a model-agnostic analysis of relevant features.

Automatic detection of cognitive impairment in elderly people using an entertainment chatbot with Natural Language Processing capabilities

Previous researchers have proposed intelligent systems for therapeutic monitoring of cognitive impairments. However, most existing practical approaches for this purpose are based on manual tests. This raises issues such as excessive caretaking effort and the white-coat effect. To avoid these issues, we present an intelligent conversational system for entertaining elderly people with news of their interest that monitors cognitive impairment transparently. Automatic chatbot dialogue stages allow assessing content description skills and detecting cognitive impairment with Machine Learning algorithms. We create these dialogue flows automatically from updated news items using Natural Language Generation techniques. The system also infers the gold standard of the answers to the questions, so it can assess cognitive capabilities automatically by comparing these answers with the user responses. It employs a similarity metric with values in [0, 1], in increasing level of similarity. To evaluate the performance and usability of our approach, we have conducted field tests with a test group of 30 elderly people in the earliest stages of dementia, under the supervision of gerontologists. In the experiments, we have analysed the effect of stress and concentration in these users. Those without cognitive impairment performed up to five times better. In particular, the similarity metric varied between 0.03, for stressed and unfocused participants, and 0.36, for relaxed and focused users. Finally, we developed a Machine Learning algorithm based on textual analysis features for automatic cognitive impairment detection, which attained accuracy, F-measure and recall levels above 80%. We have thus validated the automatic approach to detect cognitive impairment in elderly people based on entertainment content.

Explainable machine learning multi-label classification of Spanish legal judgements

Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Machine Learning (ML) have not been exploited to their maximum potential in the legal domain. This has been partially due to the insufficient explanations they provided about their decisions. Automatic expert systems with explanatory capabilities can be specially useful when legal practitioners search jurisprudence to gather contextual knowledge for their cases. Therefore, we propose a hybrid system that applies ML for multi-label classification of judgements (sentences) and visual and natural language descriptions for explanation purposes, boosted by Natural Language Processing techniques and deep legal reasoning to identify the entities, such as the parties, involved. We are not aware of any prior work on automatic multi-label classification of legal judgements also providing natural language explanations to the end-users with comparable overall quality. Our solution achieves over 85 % micro precision on a labelled data set annotated by legal experts. This endorses its interest to relieve human experts from monotonous labour-intensive legal classification tasks.

Explainable automatic industrial carbon footprint estimation from bank transaction classification using natural language processing

Concerns about the effect of greenhouse gases have motivated the development of certification protocols to quantify the industrial carbon footprint (CF). These protocols are manual, work-intensive, and expensive. All of the above have led to a shift towards automatic data-driven approaches to estimate the CF, including Machine Learning (ML) solutions. Unfortunately, the decision-making processes involved in these solutions lack transparency from the end user's point of view, who must blindly trust their outcomes compared to intelligible traditional manual approaches. In this research, manual and automatic methodologies for CF estimation were reviewed, taking into account their transparency limitations. This analysis led to the proposal of a new explainable ML solution for automatic CF calculations through bank transaction classification. Consideration should be given to the fact that no previous research has considered the explainability of bank transaction classification for this purpose. For classification, different ML models have been employed based on their promising performance in the literature, such as Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Recursive Neural Networks. The results obtained were in the 90 % range for accuracy, precision, and recall evaluation metrics. From their decision paths, the proposed solution estimates the CO2 emissions associated with bank transactions. The explainability methodology is based on an agnostic evaluation of the influence of the input terms extracted from the descriptions of transactions using locally interpretable models. The explainability terms were automatically validated using a similarity metric over the descriptions of the target categories. Conclusively, the explanation performance is satisfactory in terms of the proximity of the explanations to the associated activity sector descriptions.

Automatic detection of relevant information, predictions and forecasts in financial news through topic modelling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation

Financial news items are unstructured sources of information that can be mined to extract knowledge for market screening applications. Manual extraction of relevant information from the continuous stream of finance-related news is cumbersome and beyond the skills of many investors, who, at most, can follow a few sources and authors. Accordingly, we focus on the analysis of financial news to identify relevant text and, within that text, forecasts and predictions. We propose a novel Natural Language Processing (NLP) system to assist investors in the detection of relevant financial events in unstructured textual sources by considering both relevance and temporality at the discursive level. Firstly, we segment the text to group together closely related text. Secondly, we apply co-reference resolution to discover internal dependencies within segments. Finally, we perform relevant topic modelling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to separate relevant from less relevant text and then analyse the relevant text using a Machine Learning-oriented temporal approach to identify predictions and speculative statements. We created an experimental data set composed of 2,158 financial news items that were manually labelled by NLP researchers to evaluate our solution. The ROUGE-L values for the identification of relevant text and predictions/forecasts were 0.662 and 0.982, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first work to jointly consider relevance and temporality at the discursive level. It contributes to the transfer of human associative discourse capabilities to expert systems through the combination of multi-paragraph topic segmentation and co-reference resolution to separate author expression patterns, topic modelling with LDA to detect relevant text, and discursive temporality analysis to identify forecasts and predictions within this text.

Targeted aspect-based emotion analysis to detect opportunities and precaution in financial Twitter messages

Microblogging platforms, of which Twitter is a representative example, are valuable information sources for market screening and financial models. In them, users voluntarily provide relevant information, including educated knowledge on investments, reacting to the state of the stock markets in real-time and, often, influencing this state. We are interested in the user forecasts in financial, social media messages expressing opportunities and precautions about assets. We propose a novel Targeted Aspect-Based Emotion Analysis (TABEA) system that can individually discern the financial emotions (positive and negative forecasts) on the different stock market assets in the same tweet (instead of making an overall guess about that whole tweet). It is based on Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and Machine Learning streaming algorithms. The system comprises a constituency parsing module for parsing the tweets and splitting them into simpler declarative clauses; an offline data processing module to engineer textual, numerical and categorical features and analyse and select them based on their relevance; and a stream classification module to continuously process tweets on-the-fly. Experimental results on a labelled data set endorse our solution. It achieves over 90% precision for the target emotions, financial opportunity, and precaution on Twitter. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work in the literature has addressed this problem despite its practical interest in decision-making, and we are not aware of any previous NLP nor online Machine Learning approaches to TABEA.

Automatic explanation of the classification of Spanish legal judgments in jurisdiction-dependent law categories with tree estimators

Automatic legal text classification systems have been proposed in the literature to address knowledge extraction from judgments and detect their aspects. However, most of these systems are black boxes even when their models are interpretable. This may raise concerns about their trustworthiness. Accordingly, this work contributes with a system combining Natural Language Processing (NLP) with Machine Learning (ML) to classify legal texts in an explainable manner. We analyze the features involved in the decision and the threshold bifurcation values of the decision paths of tree structures and present this information to the users in natural language. This is the first work on automatic analysis of legal texts combining NLP and ML along with Explainable Artificial Intelligence techniques to automatically make the models' decisions understandable to end users. Furthermore, legal experts have validated our solution, and this knowledge has also been incorporated into the explanation process as "expert-in-the-loop" dictionaries. Experimental results on an annotated data set in law categories by jurisdiction demonstrate that our system yields competitive classification performance, with accuracy values well above 90%, and that its automatic explanations are easily understandable even to non-expert users.

Detection of Temporality at Discourse Level on Financial News by Combining Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning

Finance-related news such as Bloomberg News, CNN Business and Forbes are valuable sources of real data for market screening systems. In news, an expert shares opinions beyond plain technical analyses that include context such as political, sociological and cultural factors. In the same text, the expert often discusses the performance of different assets. Some key statements are mere descriptions of past events while others are predictions. Therefore, understanding the temporality of the key statements in a text is essential to separate context information from valuable predictions. We propose a novel system to detect the temporality of finance-related news at discourse level that combines Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning techniques, and exploits sophisticated features such as syntactic and semantic dependencies. More specifically, we seek to extract the dominant tenses of the main statements, which may be either explicit or implicit. We have tested our system on a labelled dataset of finance-related news annotated by researchers with knowledge in the field. Experimental results reveal a high detection precision compared to an alternative rule-based baseline approach. Ultimately, this research contributes to the state-of-the-art of market screening by identifying predictive knowledge for financial decision making.