From Risk to Rescue: An Agentic Survival Analysis Framework for Liquidation Prevention

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) lending protocols like Aave v3 rely on over-collateralization to secure loans, yet users frequently face liquidation due to volatile market conditions. Existing risk management tools utilize static health-factor thresholds, which are reactive and fail to distinguish between administrative "dust" cleanup and genuine insolvency. In this work, we propose an autonomous agent that leverages time-to-event (survival) analysis and moves beyond prediction to execution. Unlike passive risk signals, this agent perceives risk, simulates counterfactual futures, and executes protocol-faithful interventions to proactively prevent liquidations. We introduce a return period metric derived from a numerically stable XGBoost Cox proportional hazards model to normalize risk across transaction types, coupled with a volatility-adjusted trend score to filter transient market noise. To select optimal interventions, we implement a counterfactual optimization loop that simulates potential user actions to find the minimum capital required to mitigate risk. We validate our approach using a high-fidelity, protocol-faithful Aave v3 simulator on a cohort of 4,882 high-risk user profiles. The results demonstrate the agent's ability to prevent liquidations in imminent-risk scenarios where static rules fail, effectively "saving the unsavable" while maintaining a zero worsening rate, providing a critical safety guarantee often missing in autonomous financial agents. Furthermore, the system successfully differentiates between actionable financial risks and negligible dust events, optimizing capital efficiency where static rules fail.

Benchmarking Temporal Web3 Intelligence: Lessons from the FinSurvival 2025 Challenge

Temporal Web analytics increasingly relies on large-scale, longitudinal data to understand how users, content, and systems evolve over time. A rapidly growing frontier is the \emph{Temporal Web3}: decentralized platforms whose behavior is recorded as immutable, time-stamped event streams. Despite the richness of this data, the field lacks shared, reproducible benchmarks that capture real-world temporal dynamics, specifically censoring and non-stationarity, across extended horizons. This absence slows methodological progress and limits the transfer of techniques between Web3 and broader Web domains. In this paper, we present the \textit{FinSurvival Challenge 2025} as a case study in benchmarking \emph{temporal Web3 intelligence}. Using 21.8 million transaction records from the Aave v3 protocol, the challenge operationalized 16 survival prediction tasks to model user behavior transitions.We detail the benchmark design and the winning solutions, highlighting how domain-aware temporal feature construction significantly outperformed generic modeling approaches. Furthermore, we distill lessons for next-generation temporal benchmarks, arguing that Web3 systems provide a high-fidelity sandbox for studying temporal challenges, such as churn, risk, and evolution that are fundamental to the wider Web.

Avoiding Over-Personalization with Rule-Guided Knowledge Graph Adaptation for LLM Recommendations

We present a lightweight neuro-symbolic framework to mitigate over-personalization in LLM-based recommender systems by adapting user-side Knowledge Graphs (KGs) at inference time. Instead of retraining models or relying on opaque heuristics, our method restructures a user's Personalized Knowledge Graph (PKG) to suppress feature co-occurrence patterns that reinforce Personalized Information Environments (PIEs), i.e., algorithmically induced filter bubbles that constrain content diversity. These adapted PKGs are used to construct structured prompts that steer the language model toward more diverse, Out-PIE recommendations while preserving topical relevance. We introduce a family of symbolic adaptation strategies, including soft reweighting, hard inversion, and targeted removal of biased triples, and a client-side learning algorithm that optimizes their application per user. Experiments on a recipe recommendation benchmark show that personalized PKG adaptations significantly increase content novelty while maintaining recommendation quality, outperforming global adaptation and naive prompt-based methods.