AI-FLARES: Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data

AI-FLARES (Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data) is a research project funded by the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica within the framework of the ``Attivit\`a di Studio per la Comunit\`a Scientifica Nazionale Sole, Sistema Solare ed Esopianeti'' program. The topic addressed by this project was the development and use of computational methods for the analysis of remote sensing space data associated to solar flare emission. This paper overviews the main results obtained by the project, with specific focus on solar flare forecasting, reconstruction of morphologies of the flaring sources, and interpretation of acceleration mechanisms triggered by solar flares.

A comprehensive theoretical framework for the optimization of neural networks classification performance with respect to weighted metrics

In many contexts, customized and weighted classification scores are designed in order to evaluate the goodness of the predictions carried out by neural networks. However, there exists a discrepancy between the maximization of such scores and the minimization of the loss function in the training phase. In this paper, we provide a complete theoretical setting that formalizes weighted classification metrics and then allows the construction of losses that drive the model to optimize these metrics of interest. After a detailed theoretical analysis, we show that our framework includes as particular instances well-established approaches such as classical cost-sensitive learning, weighted cross entropy loss functions and value-weighted skill scores.

Physics-driven machine learning for the prediction of coronal mass ejections' travel times

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) correspond to dramatic expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the solar corona into the heliosphere. CMEs are scientifically relevant because they are involved in the physical mechanisms characterizing the active Sun. However, more recently CMEs have attracted attention for their impact on space weather, as they are correlated to geomagnetic storms and may induce the generation of Solar Energetic Particles streams. In this space weather framework, the present paper introduces a physics-driven artificial intelligence (AI) approach to the prediction of CMEs travel time, in which the deterministic drag-based model is exploited to improve the training phase of a cascade of two neural networks fed with both remote sensing and in-situ data. This study shows that the use of physical information in the AI architecture significantly improves both the accuracy and the robustness of the travel time prediction.

Narrowband Transmit Beam Pattern in medical ultrasound: a stochastic approach to delays optimization

Transmit Beam Pattern (TBP) optimization is an important task in medical ultrasound especially in some advanced applications like continuous wave Doppler or shear wave generation in acoustic radiation force impulse elastography. Standard TBP is based on transmission focused at a fixed focal depth: this results in well-known drawbacks like non-uniform beam width over depth, presence of significant side lobes and quick energy drop out after the focal depth. To overcome these limitations, in this work we present a novel optimization approach for TBP by focusing the analysis on the narrow band approximation of the TBP and considering transmit delays as free variables instead of linked to a specific focal depth. We formulate the problem as a non linear Least Squares problem to minimize the difference between the TBP corresponding to a set of delays and the desired one, modeled as a 2D rectangular shape elongated in the direction of the beam axis. The narrow band case leads naturally to reformulate the problem in the frequency domain, with a significant computational saving with respect to time domain. The optimized narrowband beam patterns have been compared with a large set of standard ones, showing an overall improvement of desired features, thus demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Moreover, in order to allow a quantitative evaluation of the improvement, a novel set of metrics is introduced.

Operational solar flare forecasting via video-based deep learning

Operational flare forecasting aims at providing predictions that can be used to make decisions, typically at a daily scale, about the space weather impacts of flare occurrence. This study shows that video-based deep learning can be used for operational purposes when the training and validation sets used for the network optimization are generated while accounting for the periodicity of the solar cycle. Specifically, the paper describes an algorithm that can be applied to build up sets of active regions that are balanced according to the flare class rates associated to a specific cycle phase. These sets are used to train and validate a Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Network made of a combination of a convolutional neural network and a Long-Short Memory network. The reliability of this approach is assessed in the case of two prediction windows containing the solar storm of March 2015 and September 2017, respectively.

Prediction of severe thunderstorm events with ensemble deep learning and radar data

The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the present paper illustrates how a deep learning method, exploiting videos of radar reflectivity frames as input, can be used to realize a warning machine able to sound timely alarms of possible severe thunderstorm events. From a technical viewpoint, the computational core of this approach is the use of a value-weighted skill score for both transforming the probabilistic outcomes of the deep neural network into binary classification and assessing the forecasting performances. The warning machine has been validated against weather radar data recorded in the Liguria region, in Italy,

Bad and good errors: value-weighted skill scores in deep ensemble learning

In this paper we propose a novel approach to realize forecast verification. Specifically, we introduce a strategy for assessing the severity of forecast errors based on the evidence that, on the one hand, a false alarm just anticipating an occurring event is better than one in the middle of consecutive non-occurring events, and that, on the other hand, a miss of an isolated event has a worse impact than a miss of a single event, which is part of several consecutive occurrences. Relying on this idea, we introduce a novel definition of confusion matrix and skill scores giving greater importance to the value of the prediction rather than to its quality. Then, we introduce a deep ensemble learning procedure for binary classification, in which the probabilistic outcomes of a neural network are clustered via optimization of these value-weighted skill scores. We finally show the performances of this approach in the case of three applications concerned with pollution, space weather and stock prize forecasting.

Machine learning as a flaring storm warning machine: Was a warning machine for the September 2017 solar flaring storm possible?

Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather. Yet, machine learning has not been able so far to realize an operating warning system for flaring storms and the scientific literature of the last decade suggests that its performances in the prediction of intense solar flares are not optimal. The main difficulties related to forecasting solar flaring storms are probably two. First, most methods are conceived to provide probabilistic predictions and not to send binary yes/no indications on the consecutive occurrence of flares along an extended time range. Second, flaring storms are typically characterized by the explosion of high energy events, which are seldom recorded in the databases of space missions; as a consequence, supervised methods are trained on very imbalanced historical sets, which makes them particularly ineffective for the forecasting of intense flares. Yet, in this study we show that supervised machine learning could be utilized in a way to send timely warnings about the most violent and most unexpected flaring event of the last decade, and even to predict with some accuracy the energy budget daily released by magnetic reconnection during the whole time course of the storm. Further, we show that the combination of sparsity-enhancing machine learning and feature ranking could allow the identification of the prominent role that energy played as an Active Region property in the forecasting process.

MEM_GE: a new maximum entropy method for image reconstruction from solar X-ray visibilities

Maximum Entropy is an image reconstruction method conceived to image a sparsely occupied field of view and therefore particularly appropriate to achieve super-resolution effects. Although widely used in image deconvolution, this method has been formulated in radio astronomy for the analysis of observations in the spatial frequency domain, and an Interactive Data Language (IDL) code has been implemented for image reconstruction from solar X-ray Fourier data. However, this code relies on a non-convex formulation of the constrained optimization problem addressed by the Maximum Entropy approach and this sometimes results in unreliable reconstructions characterized by unphysical shrinking effects. This paper introduces a new approach to Maximum Entropy based on the constrained minimization of a convex functional. In the case of observations recorded by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), the resulting code provides the same super-resolution effects of the previous algorithm, while working properly also when that code produces unphysical reconstructions. Results are also provided of testing the algorithm with synthetic data simulating observations of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) in Solar Orbiter. The new code is available in the {\em{HESSI}} folder of the Solar SoftWare (SSW)tree.

Desaturating EUV observations of solar flaring storms

Image saturation has been an issue for several instruments in solar astronomy, mainly at EUV wavelengths. However, with the launch of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) as part of the payload of the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) image saturation has become a big data issue, involving around 10^$ frames of the impressive dataset this beautiful telescope has been providing every year since February 2010. This paper introduces a novel desaturation method, which is able to recover the signal in the saturated region of any AIA image by exploiting no other information but the one contained in the image itself. This peculiar methodological property, jointly with the unprecedented statistical reliability of the desaturated images, could make this algorithm the perfect tool for the realization of a reconstruction pipeline for AIA data, able to work properly even in the case of long-lasting, very energetic flaring events.