Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty

We consider the concentration properties of functions of infinitely exchangeable random variables. By conditioning on the de Finetti directing measure, we show that the deviation of any function with bounded-difference constants $c_1, \dots, c_n$ decomposes into a conditional sampling fluctuation and a latent mixture fluctuation. When this latent mixture is $σ_{\mathrm{mix}}^2$-subgaussian, we establish a concentration inequality with an effective variance proxy of $\frac{1}{4}\sum_i c_i^2 + σ_{\mathrm{mix}}^2$. Crucially, we demonstrate that for zero-sum linear contrasts, such as the difference between a subsample mean and a full population mean, the latent mixture term cancels exactly. This cancellation yields a tight, mixture-free Hoeffding-type bound that provides a direct de Finetti mechanism for the infinite-extendibility limit of recent finite-exchangeable concentration results. We apply this framework to quantify uncertainty in composite AI benchmarks, such as MMLU, where question items naturally exhibit exchangeable dependence across domains. Our results provide both a domain-stratified hierarchical model for bounding the uncertainty of accuracy scores, and a distribution-free, cost-saving statistical guarantee for accurately estimating full benchmark scores from random subsets.

Applications of the Theory of Aggregated Markov Processes in Stochastic Learning Theory

A stochastic process that arises by composing a function with a Markov process is called an aggregated Markov process (AMP). The purpose of composing a Markov process with a function can be a reduction of dimensions, e.g., a projection onto certain coordinates. The theory around AMP has been extensively studied e.g. by Dynkin, Cameron, Rogers and Pitman, and Kelly, all of whom provided sufficient conditions for an AMP to remain Markov. In another direction, Larget provided a canonical representation for AMP, which can be used to verify the equivalence of two AMPs. The purpose of this paper is to describe how the theory of AMP can be applied to stochastic learning theory as they learn a particular task.