False Prophets: On the Security of World Models in Agentic Systems

Large language models now power autonomous agents capable of complex, multi-step tasks in different environments. Accurate and reliable execution of these tasks requires the agent to predict the results of its actions. Recent research proposes to enhance predictive capabilities via specially trained environment simulators-world models. While world models can improve performance, they can also mislead agents into executing harmful actions, creating significant security and privacy risks. In this paper, we raise security concerns regarding the usage of world models in agentic systems. We discover a range of world model specific vulnerabilities, which can be exploited in terminal-based agents to execute malicious code or extract sensitive data. To facilitate future development, we introduce a security benchmark dataset designed for text-based world models. We argue that some risks are intrinsic to approximate world modeling, and show that attackers can induce mispredictions in agentic pipelines with up to 95% success rate, possibly resulting in unintended command execution, denial of service, drainage of wallet and private information extraction. Finally, we provide practical recommendations for practitioners to mitigate the discovered harms and harden agentic systems.

Fingerprinting Inference Systems of Large Language Models

The behavior of LLMs does not depend solely on the model itself. Components of the inference system, such as the inference engine, attention backend, and hardware platform, subtly influence how inputs are processed. These components differ in their implementations and thereby induce small numerical deviations across systems when running the same model. While prior work has established the theoretical existence of such deviations, their security implications have remained unexplored. In this paper, we show that these deviations are characteristic of specific components and propagate to observable textual outputs, exposing the inference system to any party that can query the model. Building on this observation, we introduce a fingerprinting method that analyzes the prompt-response behavior of LLMs to identify components of the inference system. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the inference engine, attention backend, and underlying hardware platform can be identified reliably, even when the LLM is operated at non-zero temperature. We show that preventing fingerprinting is fundamentally hard, as it would require eliminating numerical differences between hardware and software stacks. We therefore propose partial mitigations and discuss their impact.

Hardware-Triggered Backdoors

Machine learning models are routinely deployed on a wide range of computing hardware. Although such hardware is typically expected to produce identical results, differences in its design can lead to small numerical variations during inference. In this work, we show that these variations can be exploited to create backdoors in machine learning models. The core idea is to shape the model's decision function such that it yields different predictions for the same input when executed on different hardware. This effect is achieved by locally moving the decision boundary close to a target input and then refining numerical deviations to flip the prediction on selected hardware. We empirically demonstrate that these hardware-triggered backdoors can be created reliably across common GPU accelerators. Our findings reveal a novel attack vector affecting the use of third-party models, and we investigate different defenses to counter this threat.

Adversarial Observations in Weather Forecasting

AI-based systems, such as Google's GenCast, have recently redefined the state of the art in weather forecasting, offering more accurate and timely predictions of both everyday weather and extreme events. While these systems are on the verge of replacing traditional meteorological methods, they also introduce new vulnerabilities into the forecasting process. In this paper, we investigate this threat and present a novel attack on autoregressive diffusion models, such as those used in GenCast, capable of manipulating weather forecasts and fabricating extreme events, including hurricanes, heat waves, and intense rainfall. The attack introduces subtle perturbations into weather observations that are statistically indistinguishable from natural noise and change less than 0.1% of the measurements - comparable to tampering with data from a single meteorological satellite. As modern forecasting integrates data from nearly a hundred satellites and many other sources operated by different countries, our findings highlight a critical security risk with the potential to cause large-scale disruptions and undermine public trust in weather prediction.