A Function-Space Dichotomy for Compositional Learning: Exponential Sub-Optimality of the Neural Tangent Kernel

A persistent empirical observation is that trained neural networks outperform their neural tangent kernel (NTK) limit on tasks with compositional structure, yet a quantitative account of $\textbf{when}$ and $\textbf{by how much}$ has been lacking. Working on the unit circle, we give such an account through a dichotomy between two complexity measures of the target: its $\textbf{Fourier complexity}$, which controls NTK kernel regression, and its $\textbf{architectural complexity}$, which controls learning over depth-$L$, width-$w$ ReLU networks with the variation norm of the weights bounded by $R$. We first characterize the minimax rate of the architecture class $\mathcal{C}_{L,w,R}$, pinning it down up to a single factor of $L$: between $Ω(Lw^2R^2/n)$ and $\tilde{O}(L^2w^2R^2/n)$. We then show the NTK estimator sits $\textbf{exponentially}$ above this floor whenever the two complexities decouple: for the depth-$L$ iterated sawtooth, NTK regression needs $Ω(4^L)$ samples while the minimax floor is polynomial in $L$. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical claims: on bandlimited smooth targets, the NTK is competitive or better, while on the hypercube sparse-parity model, a standard two-layer network beats the NTK by four to six orders of magnitude in test error. The gap is thus a function-space property, a mismatch between the kernel's smoothness bias and the target's compositional structure, rather than a generic kernel-versus-network phenomenon.

Improving the Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation at Subseasonal Scales with Gaussian Process Models

The Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an influential climate phenomenon that plays a vital role in modulating global weather patterns. In spite of the improvement in MJO predictions made by machine learning algorithms, such as neural networks, most of them cannot provide the uncertainty levels in the MJO forecasts directly. To address this problem, we develop a nonparametric strategy based on Gaussian process (GP) models. We calibrate GPs using empirical correlations and we propose a posteriori covariance correction. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our model has better prediction skills than the ANN models for the first five lead days. Additionally, our posteriori covariance correction extends the probabilistic coverage by more than three weeks.