MP-MoE: Matrix Profile-Guided Mixture of Experts for Precipitation Forecasting

Precipitation forecasting remains a persistent challenge in tropical regions like Vietnam, where complex topography and convective instability often limit the accuracy of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. While data-driven post-processing is widely used to mitigate these biases, most existing frameworks rely on point-wise objective functions, which suffer from the ``double penalty'' effect under minor temporal misalignments. In this work, we propose the Matrix Profile-guided Mixture of Experts (MP-MoE), a framework that integrates conventional intensity loss with a structural-aware Matrix Profile objective. By leveraging subsequence-level similarity rather than point-wise errors, the proposed loss facilitates more reliable expert selection and mitigates excessive penalization caused by phase shifts. We evaluate MP-MoE on rainfall datasets from two major river basins in Vietnam across multiple horizons, including 1-hour intensity and accumulated rainfall over 12, 24, and 48 hours. Experimental results demonstrate that MP-MoE outperforms raw NWP and baseline learning methods in terms of Mean Critical Success Index (CSI-M) for heavy rainfall events, while significantly reducing Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) values. These findings highlight the framework's efficacy in capturing peak rainfall intensities and preserving the morphological integrity of storm events.

CAKE: Real-time Action Detection via Motion Distillation and Background-aware Contrastive Learning

Online Action Detection (OAD) systems face two primary challenges: high computational cost and insufficient modeling of discriminative temporal dynamics against background motion. Adding optical flow could provides strong motion cues but it incurs significant computational overhead. We propose CAKE, a OAD Flow-based distillation framework to transfer motion knowledge into RGB models. We propose Dynamic Motion Adapter (DMA) to suppress static background noise and emphasize pixel changes, effectively approximating optical flow without explicit computation. The framework also integrates a Floating Contrastive Learning strategy to distinguish informative motion dynamics from temporal background. Various experiments conducted on the TVSeries, THUMOS'14, Kinetics-400 datasets show effectiveness of our model. CAKE achieves a standout mAP compared with SOTA while using the same backbone. Our model operates at over 72 FPS on a single CPU, making it highly suitable for resource-constrained systems.