Predicting Shape Development: a Riemannian Method

Predicting the future development of an anatomical shape from a single baseline is an important but difficult problem to solve. Research has shown that it should be tackled in curved shape spaces, as (e.g., disease-related) shape changes frequently expose nonlinear characteristics. We thus propose a novel prediction method that encodes the whole shape in a Riemannian shape space. It then learns a simple prediction technique that is founded on statistical hierarchical modelling of longitudinal training data. It is fully automatic, which makes it stand out in contrast to parameter-rich state-of-the-art methods. When applied to predict the future development of the shape of right hippocampi under Alzheimer's disease, it outperforms deep learning supported variants and achieves results on par with state-of-the-art.