Echoes of Socratic Doubt: Embracing Uncertainty in Calibrated Evidential Reinforcement Learning

We present a novel statistical approach to incorporating uncertainty awareness in model-free distributional reinforcement learning involving quantile regression-based deep Q networks. The proposed algorithm, $\textit{Calibrated Evidential Quantile Regression in Deep Q Networks (CEQR-DQN)}$, aims to address key challenges associated with separately estimating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in stochastic environments. It combines deep evidential learning with quantile calibration based on principles of conformal inference to provide explicit, sample-free computations of $\textit{global}$ uncertainty as opposed to $\textit{local}$ estimates based on simple variance, overcoming limitations of traditional methods in computational and statistical efficiency and handling of out-of-distribution (OOD) observations. Tested on a suite of miniaturized Atari games (i.e., MinAtar), CEQR-DQN is shown to surpass similar existing frameworks in scores and learning speed. Its ability to rigorously evaluate uncertainty improves exploration strategies and can serve as a blueprint for other algorithms requiring uncertainty awareness.

Mutual Information-calibrated Conformal Feature Fusion for Uncertainty-Aware Multimodal 3D Object Detection at the Edge

In the expanding landscape of AI-enabled robotics, robust quantification of predictive uncertainties is of great importance. Three-dimensional (3D) object detection, a critical robotics operation, has seen significant advancements; however, the majority of current works focus only on accuracy and ignore uncertainty quantification. Addressing this gap, our novel study integrates the principles of conformal inference (CI) with information theoretic measures to perform lightweight, Monte Carlo-free uncertainty estimation within a multimodal framework. Through a multivariate Gaussian product of the latent variables in a Variational Autoencoder (VAE), features from RGB camera and LiDAR sensor data are fused to improve the prediction accuracy. Normalized mutual information (NMI) is leveraged as a modulator for calibrating uncertainty bounds derived from CI based on a weighted loss function. Our simulation results show an inverse correlation between inherent predictive uncertainty and NMI throughout the model's training. The framework demonstrates comparable or better performance in KITTI 3D object detection benchmarks to similar methods that are not uncertainty-aware, making it suitable for real-time edge robotics.

Lightweight, Uncertainty-Aware Conformalized Visual Odometry

Data-driven visual odometry (VO) is a critical subroutine for autonomous edge robotics, and recent progress in the field has produced highly accurate point predictions in complex environments. However, emerging autonomous edge robotics devices like insect-scale drones and surgical robots lack a computationally efficient framework to estimate VO's predictive uncertainties. Meanwhile, as edge robotics continue to proliferate into mission-critical application spaces, awareness of model's the predictive uncertainties has become crucial for risk-aware decision-making. This paper addresses this challenge by presenting a novel, lightweight, and statistically robust framework that leverages conformal inference (CI) to extract VO's uncertainty bands. Our approach represents the uncertainties using flexible, adaptable, and adjustable prediction intervals that, on average, guarantee the inclusion of the ground truth across all degrees of freedom (DOF) of pose estimation. We discuss the architectures of generative deep neural networks for estimating multivariate uncertainty bands along with point (mean) prediction. We also present techniques to improve the uncertainty estimation accuracy, such as leveraging Monte Carlo dropout (MC-dropout) for data augmentation. Finally, we propose a novel training loss function that combines interval scoring and calibration loss with traditional training metrics--mean-squared error and KL-divergence--to improve uncertainty-aware learning. Our simulation results demonstrate that the presented framework consistently captures true uncertainty in pose estimations across different datasets, estimation models, and applied noise types, indicating its wide applicability.