Understanding Guest Preferences and Optimizing Two-sided Marketplaces: Airbnb as an Example

Airbnb is a community based on connection and belonging -- many hosts on Airbnb are everyday people who share their worlds to provide guests with the feeling of connection and being at home; Airbnb strives to connect people and places. Among our efforts to connect guests and hosts, we provide tools to enable hosts to set competitive prices, which helps improve affordability for guests while helping hosts get more bookings. We also personalize the guest experience to show them the listings that match their needs. To help inform these efforts, we combine economic modeling and causal inference techniques to understand how guests book stays based on the prices hosts set, among other factors, and how that preference varies across different guests and listings. Such understanding helps us identify opportunities for Airbnb to support the marketplace and better connect guests and hosts. For example, understanding how much guests respond to different prices helps optimize the tools that we provide to hosts, in order to enable hosts to choose and set competitive prices that further balance demand and supply. As another example, understanding heterogeneity in guest preferences helps us personalize the guest experience and better match them with the listings that meet their needs, based on how much they respond to different prices and other factors.

Estimating Supply Incrementality in Two-sided Marketplaces: A Causal Machine Learning Approach

In two-sided marketplaces with heterogeneous products, it is important to understand the causal relationship between additional supply and marketplace outcomes, such as the total quantity transacted or transaction value in the marketplace. This paper studies a causal machine learning approach to estimating this relationship across product segments. We use the Airbnb marketplace as an example, focusing on the impact of additional listing supply on total bookings, but the methodology applies to other two-sided marketplaces. Our approach combines double/debiased machine learning with a hierarchical Bayesian framework that leverages pre-existing knowledge as priors. We construct tractable and informative features for the model by leveraging measures of product segment similarity from the geospatial literature. We find that such a model provides plausible estimates of the marketplace returns to additional supply and strong out of sample performance.