Target Population Synthesis using CT-GAN

Agent-based models used in scenario planning for transportation and urban planning usually require detailed population information from the base as well as target scenarios. These populations are usually provided by synthesizing fake agents through deterministic population synthesis methods. However, these deterministic population synthesis methods face several challenges, such as handling high-dimensional data, scalability, and zero-cell issues, particularly when generating populations for target scenarios. This research looks into how a deep generative model called Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CT-GAN) can be used to create target populations either directly from a collection of marginal constraints or through a hybrid method that combines CT-GAN with Fitness-based Synthesis Combinatorial Optimization (FBS-CO). The research evaluates the proposed population synthesis models against travel survey and zonal-level aggregated population data. Results indicate that the stand-alone CT-GAN model performs the best when compared with FBS-CO and the hybrid model. CT-GAN by itself can create realistic-looking groups that match single-variable distributions, but it struggles to maintain relationships between multiple variables. However, the hybrid model demonstrates improved performance compared to FBS-CO by leveraging CT-GAN ability to generate a descriptive base population, which is then refined using FBS-CO to align with target-year marginals. This study demonstrates that CT-GAN represents an effective methodology for target populations and highlights how deep generative models can be successfully integrated with conventional synthesis techniques to enhance their performance.

Population Synthesis using Incomplete Information

This paper presents a population synthesis model that utilizes the Wasserstein Generative-Adversarial Network (WGAN) for training on incomplete microsamples. By using a mask matrix to represent missing values, the study proposes a WGAN training algorithm that lets the model learn from a training dataset that has some missing information. The proposed method aims to address the challenge of missing information in microsamples on one or more attributes due to privacy concerns or data collection constraints. The paper contrasts WGAN models trained on incomplete microsamples with those trained on complete microsamples, creating a synthetic population. We conducted a series of evaluations of the proposed method using a Swedish national travel survey. We validate the efficacy of the proposed method by generating synthetic populations from all the models and comparing them to the actual population dataset. The results from the experiments showed that the proposed methodology successfully generates synthetic data that closely resembles a model trained with complete data as well as the actual population. The paper contributes to the field by providing a robust solution for population synthesis with incomplete data, opening avenues for future research, and highlighting the potential of deep generative models in advancing population synthesis capabilities.