EP-Diffuser: An Efficient Diffusion Model for Traffic Scene Generation and Prediction via Polynomial Representations

As the prediction horizon increases, predicting the future evolution of traffic scenes becomes increasingly difficult due to the multi-modal nature of agent motion. Most state-of-the-art (SotA) prediction models primarily focus on forecasting the most likely future. However, for the safe operation of autonomous vehicles, it is equally important to cover the distribution for plausible motion alternatives. To address this, we introduce EP-Diffuser, a novel parameter-efficient diffusion-based generative model designed to capture the distribution of possible traffic scene evolutions. Conditioned on road layout and agent history, our model acts as a predictor and generates diverse, plausible scene continuations. We benchmark EP-Diffuser against two SotA models in terms of accuracy and plausibility of predictions on the Argoverse 2 dataset. Despite its significantly smaller model size, our approach achieves both highly accurate and plausible traffic scene predictions. We further evaluate model generalization ability in an out-of-distribution (OoD) test setting using Waymo Open dataset and show superior robustness of our approach. The code and model checkpoints can be found here: https://github.com/continental/EP-Diffuser.

Beyond In-Distribution Performance: A Cross-Dataset Study of Trajectory Prediction Robustness

We study the Out-of-Distribution (OoD) generalization ability of three SotA trajectory prediction models with comparable In-Distribution (ID) performance but different model designs. We investigate the influence of inductive bias, size of training data and data augmentation strategy by training the models on Argoverse 2 (A2) and testing on Waymo Open Motion (WO) and vice versa. We find that the smallest model with highest inductive bias exhibits the best OoD generalization across different augmentation strategies when trained on the smaller A2 dataset and tested on the large WO dataset. In the converse setting, training all models on the larger WO dataset and testing on the smaller A2 dataset, we find that all models generalize poorly, even though the model with the highest inductive bias still exhibits the best generalization ability. We discuss possible reasons for this surprising finding and draw conclusions about the design and test of trajectory prediction models and benchmarks.

Multi-modal NeRF Self-Supervision for LiDAR Semantic Segmentation

LiDAR Semantic Segmentation is a fundamental task in autonomous driving perception consisting of associating each LiDAR point to a semantic label. Fully-supervised models have widely tackled this task, but they require labels for each scan, which either limits their domain or requires impractical amounts of expensive annotations. Camera images, which are generally recorded alongside LiDAR pointclouds, can be processed by the widely available 2D foundation models, which are generic and dataset-agnostic. However, distilling knowledge from 2D data to improve LiDAR perception raises domain adaptation challenges. For example, the classical perspective projection suffers from the parallax effect produced by the position shift between both sensors at their respective capture times. We propose a Semi-Supervised Learning setup to leverage unlabeled LiDAR pointclouds alongside distilled knowledge from the camera images. To self-supervise our model on the unlabeled scans, we add an auxiliary NeRF head and cast rays from the camera viewpoint over the unlabeled voxel features. The NeRF head predicts densities and semantic logits at each sampled ray location which are used for rendering pixel semantics. Concurrently, we query the Segment-Anything (SAM) foundation model with the camera image to generate a set of unlabeled generic masks. We fuse the masks with the rendered pixel semantics from LiDAR to produce pseudo-labels that supervise the pixel predictions. During inference, we drop the NeRF head and run our model with only LiDAR. We show the effectiveness of our approach in three public LiDAR Semantic Segmentation benchmarks: nuScenes, SemanticKITTI and ScribbleKITTI.

MaskVal: Simple but Effective Uncertainty Quantification for 6D Pose Estimation

For the use of 6D pose estimation in robotic applications, reliable poses are of utmost importance to ensure a safe, reliable and predictable operational performance. Despite these requirements, state-of-the-art 6D pose estimators often do not provide any uncertainty quantification for their pose estimates at all, or if they do, it has been shown that the uncertainty provided is only weakly correlated with the actual true error. To address this issue, we investigate a simple but effective uncertainty quantification, that we call MaskVal, which compares the pose estimates with their corresponding instance segmentations by rendering and does not require any modification of the pose estimator itself. Despite its simplicity, MaskVal significantly outperforms a state-of-the-art ensemble method on both a dataset and a robotic setup. We show that by using MaskVal, the performance of a state-of-the-art 6D pose estimator is significantly improved towards a safe and reliable operation. In addition, we propose a new and specific approach to compare and evaluate uncertainty quantification methods for 6D pose estimation in the context of robotic manipulation.

Motion Planning under Uncertainty: Integrating Learning-Based Multi-Modal Predictors into Branch Model Predictive Control

In complex traffic environments, autonomous vehicles face multi-modal uncertainty about other agents' future behavior. To address this, recent advancements in learningbased motion predictors output multi-modal predictions. We present our novel framework that leverages Branch Model Predictive Control(BMPC) to account for these predictions. The framework includes an online scenario-selection process guided by topology and collision risk criteria. This efficiently selects a minimal set of predictions, rendering the BMPC realtime capable. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive decision postponing strategy that delays the planner's commitment to a single scenario until the uncertainty is resolved. Our comprehensive evaluations in traffic intersection and random highway merging scenarios demonstrate enhanced comfort and safety through our method.

Learning-Aided Warmstart of Model Predictive Control in Uncertain Fast-Changing Traffic

Model Predictive Control lacks the ability to escape local minima in nonconvex problems. Furthermore, in fast-changing, uncertain environments, the conventional warmstart, using the optimal trajectory from the last timestep, often falls short of providing an adequately close initial guess for the current optimal trajectory. This can potentially result in convergence failures and safety issues. Therefore, this paper proposes a framework for learning-aided warmstarts of Model Predictive Control algorithms. Our method leverages a neural network based multimodal predictor to generate multiple trajectory proposals for the autonomous vehicle, which are further refined by a sampling-based technique. This combined approach enables us to identify multiple distinct local minima and provide an improved initial guess. We validate our approach with Monte Carlo simulations of traffic scenarios.

Industrial Application of 6D Pose Estimation for Robotic Manipulation in Automotive Internal Logistics

Despite the advances in robotics a large proportion of the of parts handling tasks in the automotive industry's internal logistics are not automated but still performed by humans. A key component to competitively automate these processes is a 6D pose estimation that can handle a large number of different parts, is adaptable to new parts with little manual effort, and is sufficiently accurate and robust with respect to industry requirements. In this context, the question arises as to the current status quo with respect to these measures. To address this we built a representative 6D pose estimation pipeline with state-of-the-art components from economically scalable real to synthetic data generation to pose estimators and evaluated it on automotive parts with regards to a realistic sequencing process. We found that using the data generation approaches, the performance of the trained 6D pose estimators are promising, but do not meet industry requirements. We reveal that the reason for this is the inability of the estimators to provide reliable uncertainties for their poses, rather than the ability of to provide sufficiently accurate poses. In this context we further analyzed how RGB- and RGB-D-based approaches compare against this background and show that they are differently vulnerable to the domain gap induced by synthetic data.

An Empirical Bayes Analysis of Vehicle Trajectory Models

We present an in-depth empirical analysis of the trade-off between model complexity and representation error in modelling vehicle trajectories. Analyzing several large public datasets, we show that simple linear models do represent realworld trajectories with high fidelity over relevant time scales at very moderate model complexity. This finding allows the formulation of trajectory tracking and prediction as a Bayesian filtering problem. Using an Empirical Bayes approach, we estimate prior distributions over model parameters from the data that inform the motion models necessary in the trajectory tracking problem and that can help regularize prediction models. We argue for the use of linear models in trajectory prediction tasks as their representation error is much smaller than the typical epistemic uncertainty in this task.