RCTs & Human Uplift Studies: Methodological Challenges and Practical Solutions for Frontier AI Evaluation

Human uplift studies - or studies that measure AI effects on human performance relative to a status quo, typically using randomized controlled trial (RCT) methodology - are increasingly used to inform deployment, governance, and safety decisions for frontier AI systems. While the methods underlying these studies are well-established, their interaction with the distinctive properties of frontier AI systems remains underexamined, particularly when results are used to inform high-stakes decisions. We present findings from interviews with 16 expert practitioners with experience conducting human uplift studies in domains including biosecurity, cybersecurity, education, and labor. Across interviews, experts described a recurring tension between standard causal inference assumptions and the object of study itself. Rapidly evolving AI systems, shifting baselines, heterogeneous and changing user proficiency, and porous real-world settings strain assumptions underlying internal, external, and construct validity, complicating the interpretation and appropriate use of uplift evidence. We synthesize these challenges across key stages of the human uplift research lifecycle and map them to practitioner-reported solutions, clarifying both the limits and the appropriate uses of evidence from human uplift studies in high-stakes decision-making.

One Bad NOFO? AI Governance in Federal Grantmaking

Much scholarship considers how U.S. federal agencies govern artificial intelligence (AI) through rulemaking and their own internal use policies. But agencies have an overlooked AI governance role: setting discretionary grant policy when directing billions of dollars in federal financial assistance. These dollars enable state and local entities to study, create, and use AI. This funding not only goes to dedicated AI programs, but also to grantees using AI in the course of meeting their routine grant objectives. As discretionary grantmakers, agencies guide and restrict what grant winners do -- a hidden lever for AI governance. Agencies pull this lever by setting program objectives, judging criteria, and restrictions for AI use. Using a novel dataset of over 40,000 non-defense federal grant notices of funding opportunity (NOFOs) posted to Grants.gov between 2009 and 2024, we analyze how agencies regulate the use of AI by grantees. We select records mentioning AI and review their stated goals and requirements. We find agencies promoting AI in notice narratives, shaping adoption in ways other records of grant policy might fail to capture. Of the grant opportunities that mention AI, we find only a handful of AI-specific judging criteria or restrictions. This silence holds even when agencies fund AI uses in contexts affecting people's rights and which, under an analogous federal procurement regime, would result in extra oversight. These findings recast grant notices as a site of AI policymaking -- albeit one that is developing out of step with other regulatory efforts and incomplete in its consideration of transparency, accountability, and privacy protections. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from AI procurement scholarship, while identifying distinct challenges in grantmaking that invite further study.