Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Optimal Treatment Regimes and Causal Decomposition with Individualized Interventions

Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing optimal treatment regimes (OTRs). Since the newly defined individualized effects rely on the no omitted confounding assumption, developing sensitivity analyses to account for potential omitted confounding is essential. Moreover, OTRs and individualized effects are primarily based on binary risk factors, and no formal approach currently exists to benchmark the strength of omitted confounding using observed covariates for binary risk factors. To address this gap, we extend a simulation-based sensitivity analysis that simulates unmeasured confounders, addressing two sources of bias emerging from deriving OTRs and estimating individualized effects. Additionally, we propose a formal bounding strategy that benchmarks the strength of omitted confounding for binary risk factors. Using the High School Longitudinal Study 2009 (HSLS:09), we demonstrate this sensitivity analysis and benchmarking method.

Causal Decomposition Analysis with Synergistic Interventions: A Triply-Robust Machine Learning Approach to Addressing Multiple Dimensions of Social Disparities

Educational disparities are rooted in and perpetuate social inequalities across multiple dimensions such as race, socioeconomic status, and geography. To reduce disparities, most intervention strategies focus on a single domain and frequently evaluate their effectiveness by using causal decomposition analysis. However, a growing body of research suggests that single-domain interventions may be insufficient for individuals marginalized on multiple fronts. While interventions across multiple domains are increasingly proposed, there is limited guidance on appropriate methods for evaluating their effectiveness. To address this gap, we develop an extended causal decomposition analysis that simultaneously targets multiple causally ordered intervening factors, allowing for the assessment of their synergistic effects. These scenarios often involve challenges related to model misspecification due to complex interactions among group categories, intervening factors, and their confounders with the outcome. To mitigate these challenges, we introduce a triply robust estimator that leverages machine learning techniques to address potential model misspecification. We apply our method to a cohort of students from the High School Longitudinal Study, focusing on math achievement disparities between Black, Hispanic, and White high schoolers. Specifically, we examine how two sequential interventions - equalizing the proportion of students who attend high-performing schools and equalizing enrollment in Algebra I by 9th grade across racial groups - may reduce these disparities.