Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models

We present a language-model forecasting system for merger arbitrage, a specialized high-stakes financial setting in which the task is to predict the outcome of announced M\&A deals. Unlike prior work on judgmental forecasting with LLMs, which has focused on broad mixed-topic benchmarks and short context such as news snippets, we study a setting that requires long-context reasoning over hundreds of pages of technical documents. Our system combines expert-guided context engineering with finetuning on hindsight-guided reasoning traces derived from historical deals. Given an announced deal, it outputs a probability distribution over three mutually exclusive outcomes: closing at announced terms, a higher bid, or deal termination. On an out-of-sample set of more than 400 large deals spanning 42 countries, our finetuned system achieves the best performance of any method we evaluate, reducing class-balanced Brier score to 0.151. This is 24\% below calibrated market-implied probabilities, 19\% below XGBoost, and 25-42\% below frontier language models. These results, together with ablation studies, show that LLM-based forecasting can succeed in specialized, long-context financial workflows, with hindsight-based supervision and expert-designed context playing a critical role.

Greenback Bears and Fiscal Hawks: Finance is a Jungle and Text Embeddings Must Adapt

Financial documents are filled with specialized terminology, arcane jargon, and curious acronyms that pose challenges for general-purpose text embeddings. Yet, few text embeddings specialized for finance have been reported in the literature, perhaps in part due to a lack of public datasets and benchmarks. We present BAM embeddings, a set of text embeddings finetuned on a carefully constructed dataset of 14.3M query-passage pairs. Demonstrating the benefits of domain-specific training, BAM embeddings achieve Recall@1 of 62.8% on a held-out test set, vs. only 39.2% for the best general-purpose text embedding from OpenAI. Further, BAM embeddings increase question answering accuracy by 8% on FinanceBench and show increased sensitivity to the finance-specific elements that are found in detailed, forward-looking and company and date-specific queries. To support further research we describe our approach in detail, quantify the importance of hard negative mining and dataset scale.