Adaptive Reliability Analysis for Multi-fidelity Models using a Collective Learning Strategy

In many fields of science and engineering, models with different fidelities are available. Physical experiments or detailed simulations that accurately capture the behavior of the system are regarded as high-fidelity models with low model uncertainty, however, they are expensive to run. On the other hand, simplified physical experiments or numerical models are seen as low-fidelity models that are cheaper to evaluate. Although low-fidelity models are often not suitable for direct use in reliability analysis due to their low accuracy, they can offer information about the trend of the high-fidelity model thus providing the opportunity to explore the design space at a low cost. This study presents a new approach called adaptive multi-fidelity Gaussian process for reliability analysis (AMGPRA). Contrary to selecting training points and information sources in two separate stages as done in state-of-the-art mfEGRA method, the proposed approach finds the optimal training point and information source simultaneously using the novel collective learning function (CLF). CLF is able to assess the global impact of a candidate training point from an information source and it accommodates any learning function that satisfies a certain profile. In this context, CLF provides a new direction for quantifying the impact of new training points and can be easily extended with new learning functions to adapt to different reliability problems. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by three mathematical examples and one engineering problem concerning the wind reliability of transmission towers. It is shown that the proposed method achieves similar or higher accuracy with reduced computational costs compared to state-of-the-art single and multi-fidelity methods. A key application of AMGPRA is high-fidelity fragility modeling using complex and costly physics-based computational models.