Bias correction of wind power forecasts with SCADA data and continuous learning

Wind energy plays a critical role in the transition towards renewable energy sources. However, the uncertainty and variability of wind can impede its full potential and the necessary growth of wind power capacity. To mitigate these challenges, wind power forecasting methods are employed for applications in power management, energy trading, or maintenance scheduling. In this work, we present, evaluate, and compare four machine learning-based wind power forecasting models. Our models correct and improve 48-hour forecasts extracted from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The models are evaluated on datasets from a wind park comprising 65 wind turbines. The best improvement in forecasting error and mean bias was achieved by a convolutional neural network, reducing the average NRMSE down to 22%, coupled with a significant reduction in mean bias, compared to a NRMSE of 35% from the strongly biased baseline model using uncorrected NWP forecasts. Our findings further indicate that changes to neural network architectures play a minor role in affecting the forecasting performance, and that future research should rather investigate changes in the model pipeline. Moreover, we introduce a continuous learning strategy, which is shown to achieve the highest forecasting performance improvements when new data is made available.

Vibration fault detection in wind turbines based on normal behaviour models without feature engineering

Most wind turbines are remotely monitored 24/7 to allow for an early detection of operation problems and developing damage. We present a new fault detection method for vibration-monitored drivetrains that does not require any feature engineering. Our method relies on a simple model architecture to enable a straightforward implementation in practice. We propose to apply convolutional autoencoders for identifying and extracting the most relevant features from the half spectrum in an automated manner, saving time and effort. Thereby, a spectral model of the normal vibration response is learnt for the monitored component from past measurements. We demonstrate that the model can successfully distinguish damaged from healthy components and detect a damaged generator bearing and damaged gearbox parts from their vibration responses. Using measurements from commercial wind turbines and a test rig, we show that vibration-based fault detection in wind turbine drivetrains can be performed without the usual upfront definition of spectral features. Another advantage of the presented method is that the entire half spectrum is monitored instead of the usual focus on monitoring individual frequencies and harmonics.