NeuroDDAF: Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields with Evidential Fusion for Air Quality Forecasting

Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and guiding environmental policy, yet it remains challenging due to nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, wind-driven transport, and distribution shifts across regions. Physics-based models are interpretable but computationally expensive and often rely on restrictive assumptions, whereas purely data-driven models can be accurate but may lack robustness and calibrated uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields (NeuroDDAF), a physics-informed forecasting framework that unifies neural representation learning with open-system transport modeling. NeuroDDAF integrates (i) a GRU-Graph Attention encoder to capture temporal dynamics and wind-aware spatial interactions, (ii) a Fourier-domain diffusion-advection module with learnable residuals, (iii) a wind-modulated latent Neural ODE to model continuous-time evolution under time-varying connectivity, and (iv) an evidential fusion mechanism that adaptively combines physics-guided and neural forecasts while quantifying uncertainty. Experiments on four urban datasets (Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Ancona) across 1-3 day horizons show that NeuroDDAF consistently outperforms strong baselines, including AirPhyNet, achieving up to 9.7% reduction in RMSE and 9.4% reduction in MAE on long-term forecasts. On the Beijing dataset, NeuroDDAF attains an RMSE of 41.63 $μ$g/m$^3$ for 1-day prediction and 48.88 $μ$g/m$^3$ for 3-day prediction, representing the best performance among all compared methods. In addition, NeuroDDAF improves cross-city generalization and yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as confirmed by ensemble variance analysis and case studies under varying wind conditions.

Characterization and forecasting of national-scale solar power ramp events

The rapid growth of solar energy is reshaping power system operations and increasing the complexity of grid management. As photovoltaic (PV) capacity expands, short-term fluctuations in PV generation introduce substantial operational uncertainty. At the same time, solar power ramp events intensify risks of grid instability and unplanned outages due to sudden large power fluctuations. Accurate identification, forecasting and mitigation of solar ramp events are therefore critical to maintaining grid stability. In this study, we analyze two years of PV power production from 6434 PV stations at 15-minute resolution. We develop quantitative metrics to define solar ramp events and systematically characterize their occurrence, frequency, and magnitude at a national scale. Furthermore, we examine the meteorological drivers of ramp events, highlighting the role of mesoscale cloud systems. In particular, we observe that ramp-up events are typically associated with cloud dissipation during the morning, while ramp-down events commonly occur when cloud cover increases in the afternoon. Additionally, we adopt a recently developed spatiotemporal forecasting framework to evaluate both deterministic and probabilistic PV power forecasts derived from deep learning and physics-based models, including SolarSTEPS, SHADECast, IrradianceNet, and IFS-ENS. The results show that SHADECast is the most reliable model, achieving a CRPS 10.8% lower than that of SolarSTEPS at a two-hour lead time. Nonetheless, state-of-the-art nowcasting models struggle to capture ramp dynamics, with forecast RMSE increasing by up to 50% compared to normal operating conditions. Overall, these results emphasize the need for improved high-resolution spatiotemporal modelling to enhance ramp prediction skill and support the reliable integration of large-scale solar generation into power systems.

Intraday spatiotemporal PV power prediction at national scale using satellite-based solar forecast models

We present a novel framework for spatiotemporal photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting and use it to evaluate the reliability, sharpness, and overall performance of seven intraday PV power nowcasting models. The model suite includes satellite-based deep learning and optical-flow approaches and physics-based numerical weather prediction models, covering both deterministic and probabilistic formulations. Forecasts are first validated against satellite-derived surface solar irradiance (SSI). Irradiance fields are then converted into PV power using station-specific machine learning models, enabling comparison with production data from 6434 PV stations across Switzerland. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate spatiotemporal PV forecasting at a national scale. We additionally provide the first visualizations of how mesoscale cloud systems shape national PV production on hourly and sub-hourly timescales. Our results show that satellite-based approaches outperform the Integrated Forecast System (IFS-ENS), particularly at short lead times. Among them, SolarSTEPS and SHADECast deliver the most accurate SSI and PV power predictions, with SHADECast providing the most reliable ensemble spread. The deterministic model IrradianceNet achieves the lowest root mean square error, while probabilistic forecasts of SolarSTEPS and SHADECast provide better-calibrated uncertainty. Forecast skill generally decreases with elevation. At a national scale, satellite-based models forecast the daily total PV generation with relative errors below 10% for 82% of the days in 2019-2020, demonstrating robustness and their potential for operational use.

Fault Diagnosis in New Wind Turbines using Knowledge from Existing Turbines by Generative Domain Adaptation

Intelligent condition monitoring of wind turbines is essential for reducing downtimes. Machine learning models trained on wind turbine operation data are commonly used to detect anomalies and, eventually, operation faults. However, data-driven normal behavior models (NBMs) require a substantial amount of training data, as NBMs trained with scarce data may result in unreliable fault diagnosis. To overcome this limitation, we present a novel generative deep learning approach to make SCADA samples from one wind turbine lacking training data resemble SCADA data from wind turbines with representative training data. Through CycleGAN-based domain mapping, our method enables the application of an NBM trained on an existing wind turbine to one with severely limited data. We demonstrate our approach on field data mapping SCADA samples across 7 substantially different WTs. Our findings show significantly improved fault diagnosis in wind turbines with scarce data. Our method achieves the most similar anomaly scores to an NBM trained with abundant data, outperforming NBMs trained on scarce training data with improvements of +10.3% in F1-score when 1 month of training data is available and +16.8% when 2 weeks are available. The domain mapping approach outperforms conventional fine-tuning at all considered degrees of data scarcity, ranging from 1 to 8 weeks of training data. The proposed technique enables earlier and more reliable fault diagnosis in newly installed wind farms, demonstrating a novel and promising research direction to improve anomaly detection when faced with training data scarcity.

Wind turbine condition monitoring based on intra- and inter-farm federated learning

As wind energy adoption is growing, ensuring the efficient operation and maintenance of wind turbines becomes essential for maximizing energy production and minimizing costs and downtime. Many AI applications in wind energy, such as in condition monitoring and power forecasting, may benefit from using operational data not only from individual wind turbines but from multiple turbines and multiple wind farms. Collaborative distributed AI which preserves data privacy holds a strong potential for these applications. Federated learning has emerged as a privacy-preserving distributed machine learning approach in this context. We explore federated learning in wind turbine condition monitoring, specifically for fault detection using normal behaviour models. We investigate various federated learning strategies, including collaboration across different wind farms and turbine models, as well as collaboration restricted to the same wind farm and turbine model. Our case study results indicate that federated learning across multiple wind turbines consistently outperforms models trained on a single turbine, especially when training data is scarce. Moreover, the amount of historical data necessary to train an effective model can be significantly reduced by employing a collaborative federated learning strategy. Finally, our findings show that extending the collaboration to multiple wind farms may result in inferior performance compared to restricting learning within a farm, specifically when faced with statistical heterogeneity and imbalanced datasets.

Bias correction of wind power forecasts with SCADA data and continuous learning

Wind energy plays a critical role in the transition towards renewable energy sources. However, the uncertainty and variability of wind can impede its full potential and the necessary growth of wind power capacity. To mitigate these challenges, wind power forecasting methods are employed for applications in power management, energy trading, or maintenance scheduling. In this work, we present, evaluate, and compare four machine learning-based wind power forecasting models. Our models correct and improve 48-hour forecasts extracted from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The models are evaluated on datasets from a wind park comprising 65 wind turbines. The best improvement in forecasting error and mean bias was achieved by a convolutional neural network, reducing the average NRMSE down to 22%, coupled with a significant reduction in mean bias, compared to a NRMSE of 35% from the strongly biased baseline model using uncorrected NWP forecasts. Our findings further indicate that changes to neural network architectures play a minor role in affecting the forecasting performance, and that future research should rather investigate changes in the model pipeline. Moreover, we introduce a continuous learning strategy, which is shown to achieve the highest forecasting performance improvements when new data is made available.

A review of federated learning in renewable energy applications: Potential, challenges, and future directions

Federated learning has recently emerged as a privacy-preserving distributed machine learning approach. Federated learning enables collaborative training of multiple clients and entire fleets without sharing the involved training datasets. By preserving data privacy, federated learning has the potential to overcome the lack of data sharing in the renewable energy sector which is inhibiting innovation, research and development. Our paper provides an overview of federated learning in renewable energy applications. We discuss federated learning algorithms and survey their applications and case studies in renewable energy generation and consumption. We also evaluate the potential and the challenges associated with federated learning applied in power and energy contexts. Finally, we outline promising future research directions in federated learning for applications in renewable energy.

Towards Fleet-wide Sharing of Wind Turbine Condition Information through Privacy-preserving Federated Learning

Terabytes of data are collected every day by wind turbine manufacturers from their fleets. The data contain valuable real-time information for turbine health diagnostics and performance monitoring, for predicting rare failures and the remaining service life of critical parts. And yet, this wealth of data from wind turbine fleets remains inaccessible to operators, utility companies, and researchers as manufacturing companies prefer the privacy of their fleets' turbine data for business strategic reasons. The lack of data access impedes the exploitation of opportunities, such as improving data-driven turbine operation and maintenance strategies and reducing downtimes. We present a distributed federated machine learning approach that leaves the data on the wind turbines to preserve the data privacy, as desired by manufacturers, while still enabling fleet-wide learning on those local data. We demonstrate in a case study that wind turbines which are scarce in representative training data benefit from more accurate fault detection models with federated learning, while no turbine experiences a loss in model performance by participating in the federated learning process. When comparing conventional and federated training processes, the average model training time rises significantly by a factor of 7 in the federated training due to increased communication and overhead operations. Thus, model training times might constitute an impediment that needs to be further explored and alleviated in federated learning applications, especially for large wind turbine fleets.

Vibration fault detection in wind turbines based on normal behaviour models without feature engineering

Most wind turbines are remotely monitored 24/7 to allow for an early detection of operation problems and developing damage. We present a new fault detection method for vibration-monitored drivetrains that does not require any feature engineering. Our method relies on a simple model architecture to enable a straightforward implementation in practice. We propose to apply convolutional autoencoders for identifying and extracting the most relevant features from the half spectrum in an automated manner, saving time and effort. Thereby, a spectral model of the normal vibration response is learnt for the monitored component from past measurements. We demonstrate that the model can successfully distinguish damaged from healthy components and detect a damaged generator bearing and damaged gearbox parts from their vibration responses. Using measurements from commercial wind turbines and a test rig, we show that vibration-based fault detection in wind turbine drivetrains can be performed without the usual upfront definition of spectral features. Another advantage of the presented method is that the entire half spectrum is monitored instead of the usual focus on monitoring individual frequencies and harmonics.

Vibration Fault Diagnosis in Wind Turbines based on Automated Feature Learning

A growing number of wind turbines are equipped with vibration measurement systems to enable a close monitoring and early detection of developing fault conditions. The vibration measurements are analyzed to continuously assess the component health and prevent failures that can result in downtimes. This study focuses on gearbox monitoring but is applicable also to other subsystems. The current state-of-the-art gearbox fault diagnosis algorithms rely on statistical or machine learning methods based on fault signatures that have been defined by human analysts. This has multiple disadvantages. Defining the fault signatures by human analysts is a time-intensive process that requires highly detailed knowledge of the gearbox composition. This effort needs to be repeated for every new turbine, so it does not scale well with the increasing number of monitored turbines, especially in fast growing portfolios. Moreover, fault signatures defined by human analysts can result in biased and imprecise decision boundaries that lead to imprecise and uncertain fault diagnosis decisions. We present a novel accurate fault diagnosis method for vibration-monitored wind turbine components that overcomes these disadvantages. Our approach combines autonomous data-driven learning of fault signatures and health state classification based on convolutional neural networks and isolation forests. We demonstrate its performance with vibration measurements from two wind turbine gearboxes. Unlike the state-of-the-art methods, our approach does not require gearbox-type specific diagnosis expertise and is not restricted to predefined frequencies or spectral ranges but can monitor the full spectrum at once.